chonghorizons
commented
4 years ago I linked to your site from https://sites.google.com/view/leakylockdown / https://leakylockdown.com
I have this criticism, which is more an observation that you probably already know.
One Criticism: They are looking at this as a common "pool" where people randomly infect another random person in the pool. This isn't true if you look across states or communities. People are more likely to infect people in their school or social grouping or workplace.
So, even if we reach herd immunity in society overall (~60% of America), that doesn't mean the meat-packing plant in South Dakota will have herd immunity. And the meat packing plant may have an outbreak that spreads very fast.
Each state, school, social grouping, or workplace might need to be looked at as it's own pool. I show that in the vidualization I made.
I coded up a similar simulation which models the INDIVIDUAL infections.
Take a look at the 3min video in http://leakylockdown.com
Source code is open. I have some ideas to gamify it.
It uses the SEIR model and gives you parameters like if you are more likely to infect neighbors or a random person far away
PS. Loved your site. Explains it well. I will link to it soon.