ncx-gitbot
commented
1 year ago NCX response: Our business as usual model is a hierarchical statistical model that predicts one-year harvest risk and intensity based on FIA training data and a suite of covariates that include geographic, biological, economic, and sociological factors. Partial pooling across forest types ensures that the model is able to leverage the similarity and ubiquity of covariate relationships across the forests of the continental U.S. while still allowing for regionally specific differences. Predicting behavior of any type, which is the basis for any forest carbon program, is not straightforward, and depends on models whose performance can be measured. Our revised methodology requires the propagation of model uncertainty through to calcation of final credits, as well as reporting of benchmarking for all models.
Commenter Organization: Anonymous
Commenter: Anonymous
2021 Deferred Harvest Methodology Section: 6
Comment: It cannot be assumed that management plans will be followed. Even with a forester managing a forest, management often deviate from plans a forest pest maybe moving into an area, harvests maybe be heavier or lighter because of a request from the landowner or logger, the logger may violate contract, or the science changes and different management practice is used. In my experience, almost every harvest varies in someway from the plan; some more than others. I've had single tree selections turn into clearcuts or shelterwoods become seedtrees.
Proposed Change: Management should be based on what happens not what is predicted to happen.