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ncx-co / ifm_deferred_harvest

Documents, Data, and Code. The NCX Methodology For Improved Forest Management (IFM) Through Short-Term Harvest Deferral.
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Public Comment: 201 (Danny Cullenward) #201

Closed ncx-gitbot closed 1 year ago

ncx-gitbot commented 1 year ago

Commenter Organization: CarbonPlan

Commenter: Danny Cullenward

2021 Deferred Harvest Methodology Section: 8.3

Comment: The Proposed Methodology relies on old and potentially inaccurate estimates of market leakage from broader VCS program standards (see Equation 6). Because the entire concept of the Proposed Methodology is based on models that can predict the probability of harvest, these models, if accurate, can and should be used to develop market leakage parameters.

Proposed Change: Require any model that is approved to calculate the probability of timber harvest for baseline scenario purposes to be used to evaluate market leakage factors and update those factors as necessary. See comment letter.

ncx-gitbot commented 1 year ago

NCX response: Leakage is poorly studied across existing IFM projects, especially short-term harvest deferral projects. We agree that leakage is a possible outcome of purposefully delaying a harvest. Based on comments received, we have updated the methodological approach to include a more conservative deduction. We look forward to working with other developers and academic researchers to explore methods of measuring leakage directly in the future.