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ncx-co / ifm_deferred_harvest

Documents, Data, and Code. The NCX Methodology For Improved Forest Management (IFM) Through Short-Term Harvest Deferral.
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Public Comment: 278 (Ben Parkhurst) #278

Closed ncx-gitbot closed 1 year ago

ncx-gitbot commented 1 year ago

Commenter Organization: Bluesource LLC

Commenter: Ben Parkhurst

2021 Deferred Harvest Methodology Section: No Section Indicated

Comment: Use of FIA Data for Baseline Model

Proposed Change: FIA data is only remeasured in 5 or 10 year cycles yet this data source is integral for training the baseline model on when harvests actually occurred, and informs the probability that properties enrolled in the program would have been harvested. It is unclear whether this has been appropriately considered in developing the probabilistic baseline model, as the timing of FIA plot remeasurement will not coincide with enrollment of new landowners every year. Timber prices fluctuate every year and will ultimately drive the probability of harvests, but changes in the FIA plots cannot reflect such annual changes driving the probability of harvest.

ncx-gitbot commented 1 year ago

NCX response: When preparing the training data to fit our baseline harvest risk model we adjust timber pricing to reflect the conditions present during the actual FIA measurement & remeasurement periods. Following this adjustment model training and model prediction both rely on market conditions contemporary to the recorded or predicted harvest behavior.