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ncx-co / ifm_deferred_harvest

Documents, Data, and Code. The NCX Methodology For Improved Forest Management (IFM) Through Short-Term Harvest Deferral.
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Public Comment: 50 (Lynn Riley) #50

Closed ncx-gitbot closed 2 years ago

ncx-gitbot commented 2 years ago

Commenter Organization: American Forest Foundation

Commenter: Lynn Riley

2021 Deferred Harvest Methodology Section: 6

Comment: Recommend removing 100% probability of harvest in any scenario: It seems not-conservative to allow for 100% probability of harvest, even where “exercisable option” for harvest exists. There are a variety of risks that exist even when a signed contract exists that a harvest will occur that prevent the harvest from occurring at the fully expected volume or occurring at all (weather events, contract falls through, etc.).

Proposed Change: We propose a more conservative maximum of 90% probability of harvest be used in these cases, as that matches the other uncertainty thresholds used throughout the methodology and VCS, as well as matches the minimum risk score set out in the VCS non-permanence risk tool, which seems like a relevant precedent in which even a signed agreement takes on a 10% risk deduction.

ncx-gitbot commented 2 years ago

NCX response: Thank you for your comment. This is one of the key components of the harvest risk model that we are working on improving.