Percent undiagnosed was calculated as 6% among MSM for King County3 ; prior estimate of 15% was used for non-MSM (based on CDC and Washington State estimates) resulting in an estimate of 7.3% overall, rounded up to 8% for a slightly more conservative estimate (this may be the most uncertain bar in the continuum). Estimated people living with HIV/AIDS is calculated by dividing “diagnosed and presumed living in King County” residents by .92. (p33)
The last run I did for Susan was in September, and we got Base Case 6.6% undiagnosed for MSM in 2015 (see Dropbox Undiagnosed Fraction/Users/KC).
The difference arises from longer infection windows in the newer dataset --> longer mean TID. Is this a real change or an artifact? KC folks seem to have believed it was an artifact and went ahead with their own "adjustment."
In the 2016 Epi report, KC did something else:
The last run I did for Susan was in September, and we got Base Case 6.6% undiagnosed for MSM in 2015 (see Dropbox Undiagnosed Fraction/Users/KC).
The difference arises from longer infection windows in the newer dataset --> longer mean TID. Is this a real change or an artifact? KC folks seem to have believed it was an artifact and went ahead with their own "adjustment."