nextstrain / forecasts-ncov

SARS-CoV-2 variant growth rates and frequency forecasts
https://nextstrain.org/sars-cov-2/forecasts/
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Flag potential lineages for new Nextstrain clades #71

Open joverlee521 opened 10 months ago

joverlee521 commented 10 months ago

Context

Requested by @trvrb in today's forecasting-automation meeting:

Separately, I’m still running Mathematica version of fitting linear regression to logit-transformed frequencies to demarcate our >0.05 per day growth in frequency threshold

  • Could we write a small script to scan forecast-ncov results for this threshold? It really should be clade-in-question vs “other” however.
  • Should be able to convert relative growth advantage to per-day growth rate (site: delta in models)
  • Multiply Pango lineage frequency by relative fitness will give mean fitness
  • Per day relative fitness is in the model already
corneliusroemer commented 9 months ago

How would this work for regions for which we have no countries included, e.g. South America/Africa? Using this flaggin strategy would increase clade bias towards high income/sequencing countries. See #64