Consider the final offering to the ICSs to inform modelling inputs

nhs-bnssg-analytics / d_and_c

Scoping the possibility of predicting performance from demand and capacity metrics

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Consider the final offering to the ICSs to inform modelling inputs #13

Closed sebsfox closed 6 months ago

sebsfox commented 7 months ago

What is useful to an ICS?

Can train model on latest data, then apply population projections and keep other predictors the same, and offer a no change predictions?
Can train model on data up to penultimate year and then predict next year's performance with latest prediction data?
- within this scenario is a choice about whether to include the lagged target variable - this increases model performance but decreases utility

sebsfox commented 6 months ago

Following some discussions, we have decided to attempt to model the latest year using information from the previous year(s). We won't include the lag values for the target variable. This will enable us to predict the performance for next year from the latest data, and therefore consider how we can adapt to or mitigate any challenges