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nhs-bnssg-analytics / d_and_c

Scoping the possibility of predicting performance from demand and capacity metrics
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Comparing to a baseline #31

Closed sebsfox closed 2 months ago

sebsfox commented 6 months ago

How to calculate a baseline to compare with?

Some thoughts:

  1. 4hr A&E - One ICS identify a correlation between 4hr performance and "bed deficit" (shortfall in acute bed capacity compared with a specific occupancy level). They saw a large increase in emergency LoS, which pushed up bed occupancy. There is evidence that when the levels of bed deficit are so high, the admissions reduce. Future bed deficit estimates are made from expected levels of activity (demographic growth and ageing pop) combined with current LoS and then compared with bed capacity.
  2. Same as last year
  3. Projected forward using a linear mode
sebsfox commented 2 months ago

2 and 3 have been implemented in the final tool