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nmecsys / nowcasting

R package for Dynamic Factor Models with mixed frequencies and unbalanced panel :chart_with_downwards_trend:
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using quarterly data to forecast quarterly variable #10

Closed raiZel1996 closed 3 years ago

raiZel1996 commented 3 years ago

sorry in advance, But I honestly don't know where can I ask for help regarding this question. I just want to ask for advice regarding using explanatory variables that are of frequency=4 to forecast gdp with frequency of 4, is that possible using 2s and 2s_agg method thank you in advance any help will be much appreciated

carloshilal commented 3 years ago

Yo raiZel1996, I am not sure regarding exactly what kind of advice it is that you are seeking; however, within my current knowledge I can tell you that, yes, you could forecast (using any of the nowcasting methods) quarterly gdp using only quarterly variables as long as these quarterly variables are published earlier. You would also have less nowcast horizons, and I think that accuracy would be weak.
I am not sure however, that this methodology would be smart to use in that case though, since the models was specifically built for the use of lower frequency variables to forecast higher frequency ones. Hope that my answer helps, wish you the best.