report forecast catch with and without 40:10 adjustment (or equivalent)

[iantaylor-NOAA]

The 2021 lingcod south area assessment estimates current spawning biomass slightly below the B40% target leading to the additional impact of the 40:10 adjustment used in the harvest control rule for U.S. west coast groundfish. We have been told "The 40-10 rule adjusts the ACL, not the ABC. In this case, ABCs and ACLs should be reported.". Currently the ForeCatch_2021 value in derived quantities includes both the Pstar buffer and the 40:10 adjustment. We can remove the 40:10 adjustment by shifting the reference points and re-running the model but it would be nice if both quantities could be reported from the same model.

[Rick-Methot-NOAA]

The PFMC uses somewhat incorrect terminology relative to the NS1 Guidelines.

SS reports OFL, which is the overfishing level and I think it corresponds to the PFMC's ABC. SS reports ABC, which includes the 40:10. ACL is an additional management adjustment below the ABC and is not calculable from any model. So, take SS' ABC as max ACL.

However, SS' OFL does not include the effect of recent input catches.

Rick

On Thu, Aug 12, 2021 at 6:12 AM Ian Taylor @.***> wrote:

The 2021 lingcod south area assessment estimates current spawning biomass slightly below the B40% target leading to the additional impact of the 40:10 adjustment used in the harvest control rule for U.S. west coast groundfish. We have been told "The 40-10 rule adjusts the ACL, not the ABC. In this case, ABCs and ACLs should be reported.". Currently the ForeCatch_2021 value in derived quantities includes both the Pstar buffer and the 40:10 adjustment. We can remove the 40:10 adjustment by shifting the reference points and re-running the model but it would be nice if both quantities could be reported from the same model.

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[iantaylor-NOAA]

Thanks @Rick-Methot-NOAA for the additional information.

@chantelwetzel-noaa pointed me to the 2015 sablefish assessment as an example where OFL, ABC, and ACL are all reported (see screenshot below). However, reading through NS1 guidelines at https://ecfr.federalregister.gov/current/title-50/chapter-VI/part-600/subpart-D/section-600.310#p-600.310(f)(2)(ii), I understand what you're saying that the ABC should include both the Pstar and 40:10 adjustments. I've asked Pacific council staff for documentation of how these terms are defined within the PFMC context.

Regardless of terminology and what values need reporting for management by the PFMC, it could be helpful to be able to understand the relative impact of each element of the harvest control rule. However, given the availability of a work around (turning off one piece or the other in the forecast file), there's no rush on this. If it would be hard to implement within the current structure of the forecast module, we can assign this a "wont-fix" label and close the issue.

[Rick-Methot-NOAA]

Let's keep this on the wishlist because I see merit in getting a report of OFL conditioned on taking fixed catches in the first few years, but this will be a biggish deal to implement. Right now OFL is calculated conditioned on catching OFL in all years of the forecast.

Other major forecast improvements are:

1. recruitment based on random draws (with correlation) from past recdevs
2. long forecasts just to get equilibrium that accounts for all the allocation features (big deal for SEFSC)

On Thu, Aug 12, 2021 at 10:23 AM Ian Taylor @.***> wrote:

Thanks @Rick-Methot-NOAA https://github.com/Rick-Methot-NOAA for the additional information.

@chantelwetzel-noaa https://github.com/chantelwetzel-noaa pointed me to the 2015 sablefish assessment as an example where OFL, ABC, and ACL are all reported (see screenshot below). However, reading through NS1 guidelines at https://ecfr.federalregister.gov/current/title-50/chapter-VI/part-600/subpart-D/section-600.310#p-600.310(f)(2)(ii), I understand what you're saying that the ABC should include both the Pstar and 40:10 adjustments. I've asked Pacific council staff for documentation of how these terms are defined within the PFMC context.

Regardless of terminology and what values need reporting for management by the PFMC, it could be helpful to be able to understand the relative impact of each element of the harvest control rule. However, given the availability of a work around (turning off one piece or the other in the forecast file), there's no rush on this. If it would be hard to implement within the current structure of the forecast module, we can assign this a "wont-fix" label and close the issue. [image: image] https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/4992918/129236162-46c539f3-3f60-49fa-b122-28ee14065526.png

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