TheOwl() takes flight

[seth127]

The Story

On the morning of Thursday March 16th, my wife and I were working on a bracket. She read the Evan Miya data definitions and designed a strategy and we hit print. The Championship Game:

FINAL:
(1) Houston beats (9) Florida Atlantic

We laughed and looked back at the code and started poking around. Ultimately, we decided to decrease the coefficient on a single stat, because it took a seemingly arbitrary 9-seed out of the Final Four (though it still had them upsetting 1-seed Purdue!). We committed that at 8:51am, and moved on to pretending to work for a couple hours before game time.

Then tonight, this happened. And we thought, "maybe we should dig up that original bracket..."

The Change

-            + 0.25 * self._rank_to_percentile(team.evanmiyaHomeRank, reverse=True)
+            + 0.75 * self._rank_to_percentile(team.evanmiyaHomeRank, reverse=True)

And that was it. The more visually pleasing diffs are below.

The Code Diff

The Bracket Diff

wouldn't even fit on a single screen shot!

The Full Bracket

$ poetry run play --strategy TheOwl
Overall prediction for FireWaterFireWater/2023: (1) Houston over (9) Florida 
Atlantic: (76, 70)
FIRST FOUR:
(16) Texas Southern beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson
(11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh
(16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi beats (16) Southeast Missouri State
(11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada
WEST:
(1) Kansas beats (16) Howard
(9) Illinois beats (8) Arkansas
(12) VCU beats (5) Saint Mary's
(4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona
(11) Arizona State beats (6) TCU
(3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon
(7) Northwestern beats (10) Boise State
(2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville
        (1) Kansas beats (9) Illinois
        (4) Connecticut beats (12) VCU
        (3) Gonzaga beats (11) Arizona State
        (2) UCLA beats (7) Northwestern
                (1) Kansas beats (4) Connecticut
                (2) UCLA beats (3) Gonzaga
                        (1) Kansas beats (2) UCLA
EAST:
(1) Purdue beats (16) Texas Southern
(9) Florida Atlantic beats (8) Memphis
(12) Oral Roberts beats (5) Duke
(4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette
(6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence
(14) Montana State beats (3) Kansas State
(7) Michigan State beats (10) USC
(2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont
        (9) Florida Atlantic beats (1) Purdue
        (4) Tennessee beats (12) Oral Roberts
        (6) Kentucky beats (14) Montana State
        (2) Marquette beats (7) Michigan State
                (9) Florida Atlantic beats (4) Tennessee
                (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky
                        (9) Florida Atlantic beats (2) Marquette
SOUTH:
(1) Alabama beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
(8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia
(12) College of Charleston beats (5) San Diego State
(4) Virginia beats (13) Furman
(11) NC State beats (6) Creighton
(3) Baylor beats (14) UC Santa Barbara
(10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri
(2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton
        (1) Alabama beats (8) Maryland
        (4) Virginia beats (12) College of Charleston
        (11) NC State beats (3) Baylor
        (2) Arizona beats (10) Utah State
                (4) Virginia beats (1) Alabama
                (2) Arizona beats (11) NC State
                        (2) Arizona beats (4) Virginia
MIDWEST:
(1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky
(9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa
(5) Miami (Fla.) beats (12) Drake
(13) Kent State beats (4) Indiana
(6) Iowa State beats (11) Mississippi State
(3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State
(7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State
(2) Texas beats (15) Colgate
        (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn
        (13) Kent State beats (5) Miami (Fla.)
        (6) Iowa State beats (3) Xavier
        (7) Texas A&M beats (2) Texas
                (1) Houston beats (13) Kent State
                (7) Texas A&M beats (6) Iowa State
                        (1) Houston beats (7) Texas A&M
FINAL FOUR:
(9) Florida Atlantic beats (2) Arizona
(1) Houston beats (1) Kansas
FINAL:
(1) Houston beats (9) Florida Atlantic

13 upsets predicted:
        (12) VCU over (5) Saint Mary's
        (11) Arizona State over (6) TCU
        (12) Oral Roberts over (5) Duke
        (14) Montana State over (3) Kansas State
        (9) Florida Atlantic over (1) Purdue
        (9) Florida Atlantic over (4) Tennessee
        (9) Florida Atlantic over (2) Marquette
        (12) College of Charleston over (5) San Diego State
        (11) NC State over (6) Creighton
        (11) NC State over (3) Baylor
        (13) Kent State over (4) Indiana
        (13) Kent State over (5) Miami (Fla.)
        (7) Texas A&M over (2) Texas

[seth127]

Monday morning comment: it looks like TheOwl is the only bracket with anyone in the Final Four!