Dumbayz

[seth127]

A dumb Bayesian simulator. Added to The Cuts.

A couple other miscellaneous things too.

[seth127]

@ntbloom I'm marking this draft because we should really add a way to pass a seed into the top-level play() entry-point. Or we could just merge this and tackle that later.

Oh yea also, the CI is failing.

[seth127]

And this is why we need a random seed: because then you wouldn't have to just believe me that this was the bracket I got on my 6th time of running poetry run play --strategy SlothfireSteady. Because it would be reproducible.

Overall prediction for SlothfireSteady: (4) Virginia over (2) UCLA: (75, 68)
FIRST FOUR:
(16) Texas Southern beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson
(11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh
(16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi beats (16) Southeast Missouri State
(11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada
WEST:
(1) Kansas beats (16) Howard
(8) Arkansas beats (9) Illinois
(5) Saint Mary's beats (12) VCU
(4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona
(6) TCU beats (11) Arizona State
(3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon
(10) Boise State beats (7) Northwestern
(2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville
        (1) Kansas beats (8) Arkansas
        (4) Connecticut beats (5) Saint Mary's
        (3) Gonzaga beats (6) TCU
        (2) UCLA beats (10) Boise State
                (1) Kansas beats (4) Connecticut
                (2) UCLA beats (3) Gonzaga
                        (2) UCLA beats (1) Kansas
EAST:
(1) Purdue beats (16) Texas Southern
(8) Memphis beats (9) Florida Atlantic
(5) Duke beats (12) Oral Roberts
(4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette
(6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence
(3) Kansas State beats (14) Montana State
(10) USC beats (7) Michigan State
(2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont
        (1) Purdue beats (8) Memphis
        (5) Duke beats (4) Tennessee
        (6) Kentucky beats (3) Kansas State
        (2) Marquette beats (10) USC
                (1) Purdue beats (5) Duke
                (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky
                        (1) Purdue beats (2) Marquette
SOUTH:
(1) Alabama beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
(8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia
(5) San Diego State beats (12) College of Charleston
(4) Virginia beats (13) Furman
(6) Creighton beats (11) NC State
(14) UC Santa Barbara beats (3) Baylor
(10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri
(2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton
        (8) Maryland beats (1) Alabama
        (4) Virginia beats (5) San Diego State
        (14) UC Santa Barbara beats (6) Creighton
        (10) Utah State beats (2) Arizona
                (4) Virginia beats (8) Maryland
                (10) Utah State beats (14) UC Santa Barbara
                        (4) Virginia beats (10) Utah State
MIDWEST:
(1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky
(9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa
(12) Drake beats (5) Miami (Fla.)
(13) Kent State beats (4) Indiana
(11) Mississippi State beats (6) Iowa State
(3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State
(7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State
(2) Texas beats (15) Colgate
        (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn
        (13) Kent State beats (12) Drake
        (11) Mississippi State beats (3) Xavier
        (2) Texas beats (7) Texas A&M
                (1) Houston beats (13) Kent State
                (2) Texas beats (11) Mississippi State
                        (1) Houston beats (2) Texas
FINAL FOUR:
(4) Virginia beats (1) Purdue
(2) UCLA beats (1) Houston
FINAL:
(4) Virginia beats (2) UCLA

Go Hoos. Also, Go Bruins.

[seth127]

Ok, I changed my mind. This is ready to merge.

1. It's passing CI now (thanks Noah!)
2. I added deterministic and DumBayz versions of me and Danny's algorithms
3. I made this sick issue to demonstrate some of the variation we're seeing. (And to help Danny make his picks.)