The Cuts -- decision support

[seth127]

Summary

Alright alright. Here are the brackets produced by the robots, in collaboration with the author of The Cuts. There are three algorithms at play here, though my opinion is that the DumBayz is the one to seriously consider.

• TheCuts23 - The one that DC3 actually wrote. Lots of randomness.
• TheCuts23Frozen - The same, but with all randomness removed. This one is entirely deterministic.
• TheCuts23DumBayz - Simulates the core strategy 1000 times and takes the median (using the _dumbayz helper), then modifies it with the upset score.

The diffs

This is the interesting part. We ran all of this 5+ times and looked at the differences. I've included a bunch of screen shots in the details below. The high-level takeaways are:

• Your deterministic Final Four is Tennessee, Alabama, Houston, Gonzaga, with Houston beating Tennessee in the final.
• The DumBayz ones all have a few interesting "upset" variations, but most only change the outcome of 4-6 games.
• The original algorithm was all over the place! To be fair, I think what you intended for the original algorithm is a lot closer to what's implemented with DumBayz. Either way, I didn't even include any of its full brackets, but I did put in one diff screen shot.

Here were your winners:

Overall prediction for TheCuts23Frozen/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama
Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama
Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (4) Tennessee
Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama
Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama
Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama

You knew Houston was gonna take it home...

Bracket diff screenshots

`dc3frz1.txt` is the deterministic one (always on the left). **And here is the diff with one of the original ones.** It doesn't even fit on the page! (But it does pick my two teams into the Final Four... )

The actual brackets

Here are the actual full brackets for each one. If you like any of these, you can just... fill them in as your picks on ESPN.com or whatever.

dc3frz1.txt

``` Overall prediction for TheCuts23Frozen/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama: (82, 68) FIRST FOUR: (16) Fairleigh Dickinson beats (16) Texas Southern (11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh (16) Southeast Missouri State beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada WEST: (1) Kansas beats (16) Howard (8) Arkansas beats (9) Illinois (5) Saint Mary's beats (12) VCU (4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona (6) TCU beats (11) Arizona State (3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon (10) Boise State beats (7) Northwestern (2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville (1) Kansas beats (8) Arkansas (4) Connecticut beats (5) Saint Mary's (3) Gonzaga beats (6) TCU (2) UCLA beats (10) Boise State (4) Connecticut beats (1) Kansas (3) Gonzaga beats (2) UCLA (3) Gonzaga beats (4) Connecticut EAST: (1) Purdue beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (8) Memphis beats (9) Florida Atlantic (5) Duke beats (12) Oral Roberts (4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette (6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence (3) Kansas State beats (14) Montana State (7) Michigan State beats (10) USC (2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont (1) Purdue beats (8) Memphis (4) Tennessee beats (5) Duke (6) Kentucky beats (3) Kansas State (2) Marquette beats (7) Michigan State (4) Tennessee beats (1) Purdue (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky (4) Tennessee beats (2) Marquette SOUTH: (1) Alabama beats (16) Southeast Missouri State (8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia (5) San Diego State beats (12) College of Charleston (4) Virginia beats (13) Furman (6) Creighton beats (11) NC State (3) Baylor beats (14) UC Santa Barbara (10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri (2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton (1) Alabama beats (8) Maryland (5) San Diego State beats (4) Virginia (6) Creighton beats (3) Baylor (2) Arizona beats (10) Utah State (1) Alabama beats (5) San Diego State (2) Arizona beats (6) Creighton (1) Alabama beats (2) Arizona MIDWEST: (1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky (9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa (5) Miami (Fla.) beats (12) Drake (4) Indiana beats (13) Kent State (6) Iowa State beats (11) Mississippi State (3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State (7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State (2) Texas beats (15) Colgate (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn (4) Indiana beats (5) Miami (Fla.) (3) Xavier beats (6) Iowa State (2) Texas beats (7) Texas A&M (1) Houston beats (4) Indiana (2) Texas beats (3) Xavier (1) Houston beats (2) Texas FINAL FOUR: (1) Alabama beats (4) Tennessee (1) Houston beats (3) Gonzaga FINAL: (1) Houston beats (1) Alabama 0 upsets predicted: ```

dc3bayz-1.txt

``` Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama: (77, 63) FIRST FOUR: (16) Texas Southern beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh (16) Southeast Missouri State beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada WEST: (1) Kansas beats (16) Howard (8) Arkansas beats (9) Illinois (5) Saint Mary's beats (12) VCU (4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona (6) TCU beats (11) Arizona State (3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon (7) Northwestern beats (10) Boise State (2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville (1) Kansas beats (8) Arkansas (4) Connecticut beats (5) Saint Mary's (3) Gonzaga beats (6) TCU (2) UCLA beats (7) Northwestern (4) Connecticut beats (1) Kansas (3) Gonzaga beats (2) UCLA (3) Gonzaga beats (4) Connecticut EAST: (1) Purdue beats (16) Texas Southern (8) Memphis beats (9) Florida Atlantic (5) Duke beats (12) Oral Roberts (4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette (6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence (3) Kansas State beats (14) Montana State (7) Michigan State beats (10) USC (2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont (1) Purdue beats (8) Memphis (4) Tennessee beats (5) Duke (6) Kentucky beats (3) Kansas State (2) Marquette beats (7) Michigan State (4) Tennessee beats (1) Purdue (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky (4) Tennessee beats (2) Marquette SOUTH: (1) Alabama beats (16) Southeast Missouri State (8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia (5) San Diego State beats (12) College of Charleston (4) Virginia beats (13) Furman (6) Creighton beats (11) NC State (3) Baylor beats (14) UC Santa Barbara (10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri (2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton (1) Alabama beats (8) Maryland (5) San Diego State beats (4) Virginia (6) Creighton beats (3) Baylor (2) Arizona beats (10) Utah State (1) Alabama beats (5) San Diego State (2) Arizona beats (6) Creighton (1) Alabama beats (2) Arizona MIDWEST: (1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky (9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa (12) Drake beats (5) Miami (Fla.) (4) Indiana beats (13) Kent State (6) Iowa State beats (11) Mississippi State (3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State (7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State (2) Texas beats (15) Colgate (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn (4) Indiana beats (12) Drake (3) Xavier beats (6) Iowa State (2) Texas beats (7) Texas A&M (1) Houston beats (4) Indiana (2) Texas beats (3) Xavier (1) Houston beats (2) Texas FINAL FOUR: (1) Alabama beats (4) Tennessee (1) Houston beats (3) Gonzaga FINAL: (1) Houston beats (1) Alabama 1 upsets predicted: (12) Drake over (5) Miami (Fla.) ```

dc3bayz-2.txt

``` Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (4) Tennessee: (75, 66) FIRST FOUR: (16) Fairleigh Dickinson beats (16) Texas Southern (11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh (16) Southeast Missouri State beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada WEST: (1) Kansas beats (16) Howard (8) Arkansas beats (9) Illinois (5) Saint Mary's beats (12) VCU (4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona (6) TCU beats (11) Arizona State (3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon (10) Boise State beats (7) Northwestern (2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville (1) Kansas beats (8) Arkansas (4) Connecticut beats (5) Saint Mary's (3) Gonzaga beats (6) TCU (2) UCLA beats (10) Boise State (4) Connecticut beats (1) Kansas (3) Gonzaga beats (2) UCLA (3) Gonzaga beats (4) Connecticut EAST: (1) Purdue beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (8) Memphis beats (9) Florida Atlantic (5) Duke beats (12) Oral Roberts (4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette (6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence (3) Kansas State beats (14) Montana State (7) Michigan State beats (10) USC (2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont (1) Purdue beats (8) Memphis (4) Tennessee beats (5) Duke (6) Kentucky beats (3) Kansas State (2) Marquette beats (7) Michigan State (4) Tennessee beats (1) Purdue (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky (4) Tennessee beats (2) Marquette SOUTH: (1) Alabama beats (16) Southeast Missouri State (8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia (5) San Diego State beats (12) College of Charleston (4) Virginia beats (13) Furman (6) Creighton beats (11) NC State (3) Baylor beats (14) UC Santa Barbara (10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri (2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton (1) Alabama beats (8) Maryland (5) San Diego State beats (4) Virginia (6) Creighton beats (3) Baylor (2) Arizona beats (10) Utah State (1) Alabama beats (5) San Diego State (2) Arizona beats (6) Creighton (1) Alabama beats (2) Arizona MIDWEST: (1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky (9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa (5) Miami (Fla.) beats (12) Drake (4) Indiana beats (13) Kent State (6) Iowa State beats (11) Mississippi State (3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State (7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State (2) Texas beats (15) Colgate (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn (4) Indiana beats (5) Miami (Fla.) (3) Xavier beats (6) Iowa State (2) Texas beats (7) Texas A&M (1) Houston beats (4) Indiana (2) Texas beats (3) Xavier (1) Houston beats (2) Texas FINAL FOUR: (4) Tennessee beats (1) Alabama (1) Houston beats (3) Gonzaga FINAL: (1) Houston beats (4) Tennessee 0 upsets predicted: ```

dc3bayz-3.txt

``` Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama: (74, 61) FIRST FOUR: (16) Fairleigh Dickinson beats (16) Texas Southern (11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh (16) Southeast Missouri State beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada WEST: (1) Kansas beats (16) Howard (8) Arkansas beats (9) Illinois (5) Saint Mary's beats (12) VCU (4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona (6) TCU beats (11) Arizona State (3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon (10) Boise State beats (7) Northwestern (2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville (1) Kansas beats (8) Arkansas (4) Connecticut beats (5) Saint Mary's (3) Gonzaga beats (6) TCU (2) UCLA beats (10) Boise State (4) Connecticut beats (1) Kansas (3) Gonzaga beats (2) UCLA (4) Connecticut beats (3) Gonzaga EAST: (1) Purdue beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (8) Memphis beats (9) Florida Atlantic (5) Duke beats (12) Oral Roberts (4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette (6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence (3) Kansas State beats (14) Montana State (7) Michigan State beats (10) USC (2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont (1) Purdue beats (8) Memphis (4) Tennessee beats (5) Duke (6) Kentucky beats (3) Kansas State (2) Marquette beats (7) Michigan State (1) Purdue beats (4) Tennessee (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky (1) Purdue beats (2) Marquette SOUTH: (1) Alabama beats (16) Southeast Missouri State (8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia (5) San Diego State beats (12) College of Charleston (4) Virginia beats (13) Furman (6) Creighton beats (11) NC State (3) Baylor beats (14) UC Santa Barbara (10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri (2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton (1) Alabama beats (8) Maryland (5) San Diego State beats (4) Virginia (6) Creighton beats (3) Baylor (2) Arizona beats (10) Utah State (1) Alabama beats (5) San Diego State (2) Arizona beats (6) Creighton (1) Alabama beats (2) Arizona MIDWEST: (1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky (9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa (12) Drake beats (5) Miami (Fla.) (4) Indiana beats (13) Kent State (6) Iowa State beats (11) Mississippi State (3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State (7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State (2) Texas beats (15) Colgate (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn (4) Indiana beats (12) Drake (3) Xavier beats (6) Iowa State (2) Texas beats (7) Texas A&M (1) Houston beats (4) Indiana (2) Texas beats (3) Xavier (1) Houston beats (2) Texas FINAL FOUR: (1) Alabama beats (1) Purdue (1) Houston beats (4) Connecticut FINAL: (1) Houston beats (1) Alabama 1 upsets predicted: (12) Drake over (5) Miami (Fla.) ```

dc3bayz-4.txt

``` Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama: (76, 63) FIRST FOUR: (16) Fairleigh Dickinson beats (16) Texas Southern (11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh (16) Southeast Missouri State beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada WEST: (1) Kansas beats (16) Howard (8) Arkansas beats (9) Illinois (5) Saint Mary's beats (12) VCU (4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona (6) TCU beats (11) Arizona State (3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon (7) Northwestern beats (10) Boise State (2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville (1) Kansas beats (8) Arkansas (4) Connecticut beats (5) Saint Mary's (3) Gonzaga beats (6) TCU (2) UCLA beats (7) Northwestern (4) Connecticut beats (1) Kansas (3) Gonzaga beats (2) UCLA (3) Gonzaga beats (4) Connecticut EAST: (1) Purdue beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (8) Memphis beats (9) Florida Atlantic (5) Duke beats (12) Oral Roberts (4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette (6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence (3) Kansas State beats (14) Montana State (7) Michigan State beats (10) USC (2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont (1) Purdue beats (8) Memphis (4) Tennessee beats (5) Duke (6) Kentucky beats (3) Kansas State (2) Marquette beats (7) Michigan State (4) Tennessee beats (1) Purdue (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky (4) Tennessee beats (2) Marquette SOUTH: (1) Alabama beats (16) Southeast Missouri State (8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia (5) San Diego State beats (12) College of Charleston (4) Virginia beats (13) Furman (6) Creighton beats (11) NC State (3) Baylor beats (14) UC Santa Barbara (10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri (2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton (1) Alabama beats (8) Maryland (5) San Diego State beats (4) Virginia (6) Creighton beats (3) Baylor (2) Arizona beats (10) Utah State (1) Alabama beats (5) San Diego State (2) Arizona beats (6) Creighton (1) Alabama beats (2) Arizona MIDWEST: (1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky (9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa (12) Drake beats (5) Miami (Fla.) (4) Indiana beats (13) Kent State (6) Iowa State beats (11) Mississippi State (3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State (7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State (2) Texas beats (15) Colgate (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn (4) Indiana beats (12) Drake (3) Xavier beats (6) Iowa State (2) Texas beats (7) Texas A&M (1) Houston beats (4) Indiana (2) Texas beats (3) Xavier (1) Houston beats (2) Texas FINAL FOUR: (1) Alabama beats (4) Tennessee (1) Houston beats (3) Gonzaga FINAL: (1) Houston beats (1) Alabama 1 upsets predicted: (12) Drake over (5) Miami (Fla.) ```

dc3bayz-5.txt

``` Overall prediction for TheCuts23DumBayz/2023: (1) Houston over (1) Alabama: (75, 63) FIRST FOUR: (16) Fairleigh Dickinson beats (16) Texas Southern (11) Mississippi State beats (11) Pittsburgh (16) Southeast Missouri State beats (16) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (11) Arizona State beats (11) Nevada WEST: (1) Kansas beats (16) Howard (8) Arkansas beats (9) Illinois (5) Saint Mary's beats (12) VCU (4) Connecticut beats (13) Iona (6) TCU beats (11) Arizona State (3) Gonzaga beats (14) Grand Canyon (7) Northwestern beats (10) Boise State (2) UCLA beats (15) UNC Asheville (1) Kansas beats (8) Arkansas (4) Connecticut beats (5) Saint Mary's (3) Gonzaga beats (6) TCU (2) UCLA beats (7) Northwestern (4) Connecticut beats (1) Kansas (3) Gonzaga beats (2) UCLA (3) Gonzaga beats (4) Connecticut EAST: (1) Purdue beats (16) Fairleigh Dickinson (8) Memphis beats (9) Florida Atlantic (5) Duke beats (12) Oral Roberts (4) Tennessee beats (13) Louisiana-Lafayette (6) Kentucky beats (11) Providence (3) Kansas State beats (14) Montana State (7) Michigan State beats (10) USC (2) Marquette beats (15) Vermont (1) Purdue beats (8) Memphis (4) Tennessee beats (5) Duke (6) Kentucky beats (3) Kansas State (2) Marquette beats (7) Michigan State (4) Tennessee beats (1) Purdue (2) Marquette beats (6) Kentucky (4) Tennessee beats (2) Marquette SOUTH: (1) Alabama beats (16) Southeast Missouri State (8) Maryland beats (9) West Virginia (5) San Diego State beats (12) College of Charleston (4) Virginia beats (13) Furman (6) Creighton beats (11) NC State (3) Baylor beats (14) UC Santa Barbara (10) Utah State beats (7) Missouri (2) Arizona beats (15) Princeton (1) Alabama beats (8) Maryland (5) San Diego State beats (4) Virginia (3) Baylor beats (6) Creighton (2) Arizona beats (10) Utah State (1) Alabama beats (5) San Diego State (2) Arizona beats (3) Baylor (1) Alabama beats (2) Arizona MIDWEST: (1) Houston beats (16) Northern Kentucky (9) Auburn beats (8) Iowa (12) Drake beats (5) Miami (Fla.) (4) Indiana beats (13) Kent State (6) Iowa State beats (11) Mississippi State (3) Xavier beats (14) Kennesaw State (7) Texas A&M beats (10) Penn State (2) Texas beats (15) Colgate (1) Houston beats (9) Auburn (4) Indiana beats (12) Drake (3) Xavier beats (6) Iowa State (2) Texas beats (7) Texas A&M (1) Houston beats (4) Indiana (2) Texas beats (3) Xavier (1) Houston beats (2) Texas FINAL FOUR: (1) Alabama beats (4) Tennessee (1) Houston beats (3) Gonzaga FINAL: (1) Houston beats (1) Alabama 1 upsets predicted: (12) Drake over (5) Miami (Fla.) ```

[seth127]

I just looked at this again... did you notice that in 4 of the 5 DumBayz runs, one of the upset picks is Drake over Miami?! In dc3bayz-5, it's the only upset pick. Those Hurricanes are in trouble.

[seth127]

Ok, I just updated everything above with the new data from https://github.com/ntbloom/gamewinner/pull/12

Not a ton changed, but certainly a few things. Happy picking!