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Improve forecast track by using previous advisories #8

Closed SorooshMani-NOAA closed 1 year ago

SorooshMani-NOAA commented 1 year ago

In the current implementation, the corrected OFCL forecast tracks is extracted as a dataframe using stormevents, then the 48-hr prior-to-landfall track (let's call it 48-hr track ) is selected from the dataframe in the "workflow" logic (i.e. outside stormevents). See:

https://github.com/oceanmodeling/ondemand-storm-workflow/blob/720f528b8d9e34bb10433e8f0a3c3ad8b72da40c/docker/info/docker/hurricane_data.py#L87-L106

48-hr corrected OFCL track means the corrected OFCL advisory track that has a track_start_time equal to (or the first one less than) 48-hours before the landfall time. The landfall time is also calculated in the workflow logic based on the track location being on the US land polygon (from "NaturalEarth Low Res"). See:

https://github.com/oceanmodeling/ondemand-storm-workflow/blob/720f528b8d9e34bb10433e8f0a3c3ad8b72da40c/docker/info/docker/hurricane_data.py#L50-L51

https://github.com/oceanmodeling/ondemand-storm-workflow/blob/720f528b8d9e34bb10433e8f0a3c3ad8b72da40c/docker/info/docker/hurricane_data.py#L93-L98

This track is then perturbed from the start of it (~48-hr before landfall). This approach might result in "shock waves" being sent to the coast, since the hurricane suddenly appears in the near coast region. In turn it might result in incorrect predictions.

As discussed verbally with @WPringle, to avoid this, we can add all the prior OFCL advisories at forecast_hours == 0 to the full track, so that storm starts farther away from the coast and only perturbed the full track starting from the 48-hour track point.

WPringle commented 1 year ago

@SorooshMani-NOAA I think this could be implemented as part of Stormevents though, where it can string together the previous 0-hr forecast times from the forecast_date to the given start_date.

SorooshMani-NOAA commented 1 year ago

@WPringle it makes sense to do so. I'll create a separate ticket on stormevents and link this one to that. Let's keep this one for tracking the workflow implementation (and for my sanity) and the other one for adding this feature to stormevents.

SorooshMani-NOAA commented 1 year ago

New version of stormevents with some fixes are also available now. Update the version as well during implementing these improvements for the workflow.