Closed SorooshMani-NOAA closed 1 year ago
@SorooshMani-NOAA I think this could be implemented as part of Stormevents though, where it can string together the previous 0-hr forecast times from the forecast_date
to the given start_date
.
@WPringle it makes sense to do so. I'll create a separate ticket on stormevents
and link this one to that. Let's keep this one for tracking the workflow implementation (and for my sanity) and the other one for adding this feature to stormevents
.
New version of stormevents
with some fixes are also available now. Update the version as well during implementing these improvements for the workflow.
In the current implementation, the corrected
OFCL
forecast tracks is extracted as a dataframe usingstormevents
, then the 48-hr prior-to-landfall track (let's call it 48-hr track ) is selected from the dataframe in the "workflow" logic (i.e. outsidestormevents
). See:https://github.com/oceanmodeling/ondemand-storm-workflow/blob/720f528b8d9e34bb10433e8f0a3c3ad8b72da40c/docker/info/docker/hurricane_data.py#L87-L106
48-hr corrected
OFCL
track means the correctedOFCL
advisory track that has atrack_start_time
equal to (or the first one less than) 48-hours before the landfall time. The landfall time is also calculated in the workflow logic based on the track location being on the US land polygon (from "NaturalEarth Low Res"). See:https://github.com/oceanmodeling/ondemand-storm-workflow/blob/720f528b8d9e34bb10433e8f0a3c3ad8b72da40c/docker/info/docker/hurricane_data.py#L50-L51
https://github.com/oceanmodeling/ondemand-storm-workflow/blob/720f528b8d9e34bb10433e8f0a3c3ad8b72da40c/docker/info/docker/hurricane_data.py#L93-L98
This track is then perturbed from the start of it (~48-hr before landfall). This approach might result in "shock waves" being sent to the coast, since the hurricane suddenly appears in the near coast region. In turn it might result in incorrect predictions.
As discussed verbally with @WPringle, to avoid this, we can add all the prior
OFCL
advisories atforecast_hours == 0
to the full track, so that storm starts farther away from the coast and only perturbed the full track starting from the 48-hour track point.