Open oharac opened 5 years ago
Another interesting project is to determine proportion of species (all species and threatened species only) that would be protected if the wilderness areas are protected. The issue is that using "wilderness" as a primary (or significant) criteria for protection might not result in protecting much of anything.
So, this approach to designating protected areas might not have a great return.
FYI Kendall Jones is leading a paper that is looking at the % of ocean needed to adequately protect marine species, within wilderness, KBAs, MPAs, and gap areas. The paper is also overlapping threat layers (from our 2015 paper). Let's discuss where this leaves us.
On 2/5/2019 8:54 AM, Melsteroni wrote:
Additional notes on approaches to BD/CHI Wilderness biodiversity
Another interesting project is to determine proportion of species (all species and threatened species only) that would be protected if the wilderness areas are protected. The issue is that using "wilderness" as a primary (or significant) criteria for protection might not result in protecting much of anything.
So, this approach to designating protected areas might not have a great return.
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Benjamin S. Halpern Director, Nat'l. Center for Ecol. Anal. & Synth. (NCEAS) University of California 735 State St., Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 (ph) 805.893.7527 (web) http://www.nceas.ucsb.edu
Professor, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
Senior Fellow, UN Envir. Prog.- World Conserv. Monitor. Cent. (UNEP-WCMC)
Question: Is the protection of "wilderness" areas a good management decision?
Approach:
Overview: This seems like it would be relatively easy to do from an analytical and writing perspective (the framing of the paper could follow the Selig paper).
But, based on Ben's comment, it sounds like this might be taken care of?
I am still trying to figure out our larger goal here....HELP!
I generally get that we are looking at how the following variables coincide: CHI, CHI-Trend, species vulnerability, diversity, endemism. The endpoint isn't clear to me, but here are some possibilities:
Overview: Cut 3 because it is fraught with statistical assumptions and challenges.
I think framing the paper from the 1st option seems the most interesting. And, we could say that our approach also helps identify priority conservation areas (2). I also think breaking the impacts into the 4 main groups (fishing, land-based, ocean-based, climate change) for the analyses would be useful because protected areas are unlikely to do much for mitigating climate change impacts.
One cool way to visualize the results might be:
Each point is a raster cell (so there would be wwwwaaaaayyyyyyy more points in the actual figure and it would be much messier...but there are cool ways to convey this). A pattern like this would suggest that the CHI maps are actually more scary than they appear because high diversity areas are under relatively more threat.
Question: Which species are most at threat due to high CHI and increasing CHI?
Methods: Overlay each species on a CHI/CHI trend category map and determine the proportion of their range falling into 9 categories: (this species has elevated risk)
Then summarize this information across all species and taxa groups and vulnerability groups. This would tell us:
I think we should pick one of the projects to focus our efforts....clarify our question/objectives...and then figure out the next steps!
thanks so much for the helpful thinking and I love the visualization idea, @Melsteroni !
In related news, I just looked at my code for the BD risk paper, thinking I had to update some of the analysis to address the reviewer comments about resolution and such, but nope - looks like I nailed it the first time. So a good portion of the "major revisions" becomes "explaining the methods a little bit better."
Well, that must have been very satisfying! Yay for "major revisions" transforming into "minor revisions"!
On Thu, Feb 7, 2019 at 4:37 PM oharac notifications@github.com wrote:
thanks so much for the helpful thinking and I love the visualization idea, @Melsteroni https://github.com/Melsteroni !
In related news, I just looked at my code for the BD risk paper, thinking I had to update some of the analysis to address the reviewer comments about resolution and such, but nope - looks like I nailed it the first time. So a good portion of the "major revisions" becomes "explaining the methods a little bit better."
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replying to all 3 parts.
Kendall's paper is looking at all biodiversity (23K species) without regard to threatened status but with one part of the analysis focused on threats to species (from our previous CHI layers). So a focus on threatened status is novel no matter what the question.
Wilderness question framed only on diversity or endemism is not novel, so I would skip this.
Adapting the vulnerability weights to species and tracking species risk to CHI trends would both be novel and interesting. The former will likely be done under the new OceanKind project but not available until later this year. The latter could be the focus of this immediate paper. Updating the Selig paper (and/or the Kendall Jones paper) to account for biodiversity hotspots and CHI trends could be interesting, but not a huge leap forward on the science.
In short, I think I like @melstroni idea #3 of 3, which builds on the species risk + CHI trend idea from idea #2 of 3.
On 2/5/19 2:06 PM, Melsteroni wrote:
Conclusions (for now)
I think we should pick one of the projects to focus our efforts....clarify our question/objectives...and then figure out the next steps!
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Benjamin S. Halpern Director, Nat'l. Center for Ecol. Anal. & Synth. (NCEAS) University of California 735 State St., Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 (ph) 805.893.7527 (web) http://www.nceas.ucsb.edu
Professor, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
Senior Fellow, UN Envir. Prog.- World Conserv. Monitor. Cent. (UNEP-WCMC)
Some quick notes from our meeting last week:
Wilderness biodiversity
Overlay recent wilderness paper with map of biodiversity to examine status (etc) of biodiversity within wilderness areas. What % of species in wilderness areas are threatened? Is biodiversity status within wilderness areas different from non-wilderness?
These can be broken out by taxonomic groups, and perhaps types of habitat or ecoregion.
First steps - get a hold of wilderness maps.
Spatial comparison of BD status to CHI
Similar to Selig et al 2014 - define "bins" of cumulative impact (high/low) as well as trend (increasing/decreasing/stable); compare these to metrics of biodiversity magnitude (species richness, range-rarity-weighted species richness, maybe normalized range-rarity-weighted species richness, as in Selig paper) as well as biodiversity status (mean status, % threatened, trend, etc).
These can be broken out by classes of stressors, as well as taxonomic groups.
With multiple dimensions of comparison (BD magnitude, status, CHI stressors, trends) it becomes important to identify which overlaps indicate what kinds of prioritization.
Species-specific comparison of status to CHI
For each species in the dataset, identify how its spatial distribution overlaps with cumulative impact maps. Consider like a density plot of presence in various levels of CHI (low-medium-high) on one axis and density plot of presence vs. CHI trend in another, described by distribution parameters (i.e. mean and variance probably)
These can be aggregated up to taxonomic group level to get a sense of the taxon's general exposure to stressors. How to aggregate - area weighted? all species equally weighted? inverse area weighted?
Perhaps regional aggregation might be interesting as well.