online-go / goratings

This repository contains the (future) official rating and ranking system for online-go.com, as well as analysis code and data to develop that system and compare it to other reference systems.
MIT License
19 stars 6 forks source link

Incorporate error into handicap adjustments #70

Open dexonsmith opened 7 months ago

dexonsmith commented 7 months ago

Change get_handicap_adjustment to return a tuple with both rating and error, where the error comes from:

Also change Glicko2Entry.copy to add incorporate the error into the rating deviation using root-of-sum-of-squares, which is the usual way to combine standard errors.

dexonsmith commented 7 months ago

Did a sniff test, but not really any analysis of whether the initial defaults are the numbers we actually want.

Let me know if you'd rather default to "off" for these until some analysis is done.

dexonsmith commented 7 months ago

Let me know if you'd rather default to "off" for these until some analysis is done.

I mean, either way there will be analysis to do later, just a matter of the current default on the branch.

anoek commented 6 months ago

What are we looking to improve with this? Comparing the output from with and without this change, the end results are pretty similar, at least on the surface. That leads me to think it's probably fine to merge, but I'm a little hesitant to just click merge without building a bit more intuition about how this is improving results and what, if any, tradeoffs we're making.

anoek commented 6 months ago

From the https://github.com/dexonsmith/goratings/blob/document-ratings-v6/RatingsV6.md the added clarification for the purpose of this is:

Increase effective rating deviation of opponent for larger handicaps and strange komi values.

anoek commented 5 months ago

Marking this as draft for the summer so it's not on my "to check on and merge" list until we start revisiting stuff in the fall