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GN data analysis to examine social media blocking during 2020 elections #488

Closed agrabeli closed 4 years ago

agrabeli commented 4 years ago

This analysis of GN measurements aims to examine the blocking of social media during Guinea's March 2020 elections.

This would involve analysis of Web Connectivity measurements for popular social media sites, as well as analysis of WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger measurements.

agrabeli commented 4 years ago

OONI analysis for Guinea

Things to consider

  1. In every case, the availability of OONI data depends on whether or not people in a specific country ran OONI Probe (https://ooni.org/install/). For example, if no one ran OONI Probe in Guinea on 22nd March 2020, then no OONI data would be available (though this is not the case).

  2. OONI data depends on which OONI Probe tests were run in a country (see all OONI Probe tests here: https://ooni.org/nettest/). For example, if no one ran the WhatsApp test in Guinea on 22nd March 2020, then no OONI data on the testing of WhatsApp (on 22nd March 2020) would be available (though this is not the case).

  3. OONI data depends on which websites were tested with OONI Probe in a specific country on a specific date. For example, if no one in Guinea tested www.facebook.com in Guinea on 22nd March 2020, then no OONI data on the testing of www.facebook.com in Guinea on 2nd March 2020 would be available (though this is not the case).

  4. Volume of measurements. The more tests are run, the higher our confidence in confirming a censorship event. In the case of Guinea, relatively few tests are run in general, limiting our confidence in confirming the findings.

  5. The results depend on which networks OONI Probe users chose to run tests on. For example, if OONI Probe users in Guinea only ran tests on Orange, then we will only have results from that network. In this case (around the Guinea 2020 elections), we only have data from 2 networks: Orange (AS37461) and MTN (AS37612).

Findings

Both WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger appear to have been blocked in Guinea around the 2020 elections.

WhatsApp

OONI data shows that the blocking of WhatsApp appears to have started on 21st March 2020 (before the elections), and it was ongoing on 23rd March 2020.

The lack of subsequent testing limits our ability to evaluate whether WhatsApp has since been unblocked.

It's worth highlighting that OONI data only suggests blocking of WhatsApp on MTN (AS37612), as all measurements collected on Orange (AS37461) showed that WhatsApp was accessible throughout the elections, as illustrated through the following chart:

whatsapp

As you can see through the above chart, WhatsApp appeared to be accessible on Orange (AS37461) when it was tested between 21st-23rd March 2020. In contrast, it appeared to be blocked during this time period on MTN (AS37612).

Facebook Messenger

Similarly, Facebook Messenger only presents signs of potential blocking on MTN (AS37612), as illustrated through the following chart:

Facebook Messenger

However, unlike WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger only appears to have temporarily been blocked on 21st March 2020, before the elections. Subsequent measurements collected from MTN show that the app was accessible in Guinea on election day and thereafter.

Throughout the election period, OONI measurements show that Facebook Messenger was accessible on Orange (AS37461).

Facebook

On 22nd March 2020, facebook.com was only tested once in Guinea on Orange (AS37461), and that measurement presented signs of blocking: https://explorer.ooni.org/measurement/20200322T082959Z_AS37461_SxQlRL2sJyhZhh38BK4wyKOvPd6y6vN2oOOiAVhgjIwG3d0QN6?input=http%3A%2F%2Ffacebook.com

More specifically, this measurement suggests that facebook.com was potentially blocked by some sort of Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) technology, as the DNS queries and TCP connections go through OK, but when you do a HTTPS request for facebook.com, it fails.

Unfortunately, neither Twitter nor Instagram were tested in Guinea by OONI Probe users around the 2020 elections. We therefore don't have OONI data available on their testing.

Conclusion

OONI data suggests that both WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger were blocked on 21st March 2020 on MTN (AS37612) in Guinea, while neither app presented signs of blocking on Orange (AS37461) around the 2020 elections.

However, Orange (AS37461) appears to have blocked access to facebook.com on 22nd March 2020.

MTN (AS37612) appears to have blocked access to WhatsApp between 21st March 2020 to (at least) 23rd March 2020, while Facebook Messenger only presented signs of potential blocking on that network on 21st March 2020.

All OONI data on these cases is available through the attached CSV files, and openly published on OONI Explorer: https://explorer.ooni.org/

Next steps

It's evident that more extensive and regular OONI Probe testing in Guinea is essential.

People in Guinea who are interested in contributing OONI measurements can do so by installing OONI Probe on:

The desktop app allows for more extensive testing, since you can test more than 1,000 websites in one go.

agrabeli commented 4 years ago

This has been shared.