Blend forecasts

[peterdudfield]

Detailed Description

We currently have PVnet and National_XG moidels both making UK National forecastds. They both save to 'forecast_valueandforecast_value_latesttables. The API loads forecast_value_latest` table.

How to get the results of both PVnet and National_XG blended together in a flexible way.

Context

• good to blend forecast,
• want blend to be smooth
• want blend to be resistance to one model not working

Possible Implementation

• add model_id to forecast_value_latest table. This means both forecast save all results to there - https://github.com/openclimatefix/nowcasting_datamodel/issues/159
• adjust national read method to read both, and then blend, for example first 2 hours could be PVnet, next 4 hours could be linearly blended, and 6 onwards is national - https://github.com/openclimatefix/nowcasting_datamodel/issues/160
• Add rule like if there are no forecasts, then just use the other one - https://github.com/openclimatefix/nowcasting_datamodel/issues/160
• The blending weights could be in the database, but for now, harding coding is find
• Could deploy national before this is done, as the results look ok. Would need to do this first - https://github.com/openclimatefix/nowcasting/issues/346
• Upgrade `National_pv' to save all latest values
• Upgrade `PVnet' to save model id too - https://github.com/openclimatefix/nowcasting_forecast/pull/189
• Upgrade api to use new read function

Deploy

• [x] migration database
• [x] upgrade nowcasting_forecast to version '1.3.3'
• [x] upgrade API to version '1.3.7'
• [x] Deploy nwp national
• [ ] Deploy National_pv to version '0.1.28', try to deploy, but got funny results

[peterdudfield]

@JackKelly @jacobbieker what do you think?

[jacobbieker]

Yeah, I think saving them both is great, and then it should be easy to change the blending if we need to then, if the blending is added in the read method. So yeah, all sounds great to me!

[peterdudfield]

Thanks @jacobbieker

[peterdudfield]

This is now on deveopment env

[peterdudfield]

now on production