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Data availability eGon2037 #297

Open CarlosEpia opened 2 months ago

CarlosEpia commented 2 months ago

In this issue, it will be documented which data is available in the new version of NEP English and NEP original in case it is decided to a create new scenario eGon2037 mainly based on the code already available for eGon2035.

CarlosEpia commented 2 months ago

From the scenario_parameters this information was used from NEP for eGon2035 and would be also required to eGon2037: NEP original table 33 and text above (biomass is still not available): "fuel_costs": { "oil": 73.8, # [EUR/MWh] "gas": 25.6, # [EUR/MWh] "coal": 20.2, # [EUR/MWh] "lignite": 4.0, # [EUR/MWh] "nuclear": 1.7, # [EUR/MWh] "biomass": 40, # Dummyvalue, ToDo: Find a suitable source }, NEP original table 34 "co2_costs": 76.5, # [EUR/t_CO2] NEP original table 35 "co2_emissions": { # Netzentwicklungsplan Strom 2035, Version 2021, 1. Entwurf, p. 40, table 8 "waste": 0.165, # [t_CO2/MW_th] "lignite": 0.393, # [t_CO2/MW_th] "gas": 0.201, # [t_CO2/MW_th] "nuclear": 0.0, # [t_CO2/MW_th] "oil": 0.288, # [t_CO2/MW_th] "coal": 0.335, # [t_CO2/MW_th] "other_non_renewable": 0.268, # [t_CO2/MW_th] },

CarlosEpia commented 2 months ago

Overnight costs: It is mentioned here and here that the cost for overhead HV transmission lines and transformers comes from the NEP. This NEP chapter 5.2.1 links this document regarding most of the overnight cost. parameters["overnight_cost"] = { "ac_ehv_overhead_line": 2.5e6 / ( 2

CarlosEpia commented 2 months ago

e-mobility: There is a lot of information like this FfE study about electric mobility in the NEP 2023. I still don´t see exactly the data used below but in this document table 6 we see similar data. if scenario == "eGon2035": parameters = { "motorized_individual_travel": { "NEP C 2035": { "ev_count": 15100000, "bev_mini_share": 0.1589, "bev_medium_share": 0.3533, "bev_luxury_share": 0.1053, "phev_mini_share": 0.0984, "phev_medium_share": 0.2189, "phev_luxury_share": 0.0652, "model_parameters": {}, } } }

TODO: find out if this % are coming from NEP or which source. Check eGon final report.

CarlosEpia commented 2 months ago

Regarding scenario capacities all the installed capacities per scenario and carrier can be found here chapter 2.1.2 table 1 page 25 and page 52

CarlosEpia commented 2 months ago

Regarding Wind offshore, the information accuracy improved significantly and we can now know the connexion point of each one of the wind offshore parks. All information available in chapter 4

CarlosEpia commented 2 months ago

TODO: Compare installed capacities from 2035 vs 2037 (also scenarios)

CarlosEpia commented 1 month ago

Values for installed capacities different scenarios: <!DOCTYPE html>

Energieträger | Referenz | 2037 | 2037 | 2037 | 2045 | 2045 | 2045 |   | 2019 | 2035 | 2035 | 2035 | 2040 -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | --   | 2020/2021 | A | B | C | A | B | C |   |   | A | B | C | B Kernenergie | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |   | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Braunkohle | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |   | 20.9 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 Steinkohle | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |   | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Erdgas/Wasserstoff* | 32.1 | 38.4 | 38.4 | 38.4 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 |   | 30 | 38.1 | 42.4 | 46.7 | 42.4 Öl | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |   | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 Pumpspeicher | 9.8 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |   | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 sonstige konventionelle Erzeugung | 4.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |   | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 onshore | 56.1 | 158.2 | 158.2 | 161.6 | 160 | 160 | 180 |   | 53.3 | 81.5 | 86.8 | 90.9 | 88.8 offshore | 7.8 | 50.5 | 58.5 | 58.5 | 70 | 70 | 70 |   | 7.5 | 28 | 30 | 34 | 40 Photovoltaik | 59.3 | 345.4 | 345.4 | 345.4 | 400 | 400 | 445 |   | 49 | 110.2 | 117.8 | 120.1 | 125.8 Biomasse | 9.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |   | 8.3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 8.2 Wasserkraft*** | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |   | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 sonstige | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |   | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 Summe regenerative Erzeugung | 138.7 | 564.9 | 572.9 | 576.3 | 638.3 | 638.3 | 703.3 |   | 124.2 | 233.4 | 249 | 260.6 | 269.7 Summe | 231.6 | 616.5 | 624.5 | 627.9 | 686.1 | 686.1 | 751.1 |   | 224.3 | 294.6 | 306.7 | 322.6 | 327.1
CarlosEpia commented 1 month ago

Absolute [GW] and relative difference in installed capacities for different scenarios: **<!DOCTYPE html>

  | 2035A – 2037A | 2035B – 2037B | 2035C – 2037C -- | -- | -- | -- Kernenergie | 0 | 0 | 0 Braunkohle | 7.8 (100%) | 0 | 0 Steinkohle | 0 | 0 | 0 Erdgas | -0.3 (-0.7%) | 4 (9.4%) | 8.3 (17.7%) Öl | 1.3 (100%) | 1.3 (100%) | 1.3 (100%) Pumpspeicher | -2 (-19.6%) | -2 (-19.6%) | -2 (-19.6%) sonstige konventionelle Erzeugung | 2.8 (73.6%) | 2.8 (73.6%) | 2.8 (73.6%) Wind onshore | -76.7 (-94.1%) | -71.4 (-82.2%) | -70.7 (-77.7%) Wind offshore | -22.5 (-80.3%) | -28.5 (-95%) | -24.5 (-72%) Photovoltaik | -235.2 (-213.4%) | -227.6 (-193.2%) | -225.3 (-187.5%) Biomasse | 2.3 (33.8%) | 3 (40%) | 4.2 (48.2%) Wasserkraft | 0.3 (5.3%) | 0.3 (5.3%) | 0.3 (5.3%) sonstige regenerative Erzeugung | 0.3 (23%) | 0.3 (23%) | 0.3 (23%) Summe regenerative Erzeugung | -331.5 (-142%) | -323.9 (-130%) | -315.7 (-121.1%) Summe Erzeugung | -321.9 (-109.2%) | -317.8 (-103.6%) | -305.3 (-94.6%)

**

CarlosEpia commented 1 month ago

Fuel and CO2 costs: <!DOCTYPE html>

fuel_costs |   | 2035 | 2037 ABC | Diff [%] | Note -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- oil | [EUR/MWh] | 73.8 | 24.9 | -66.3 |   gas | [EUR/MWh] | 25.6 | 15.2 | -40.6 |   coal | [EUR/MWh] | 20.2 | 6.1 | -69.8 |   lignite | [EUR/MWh] | 4 | 6.5 | 62.5 |   nuclear | [EUR/MWh] | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |   biomass | [EUR/MWh] | 40 | 40 | 0.0 | Dummyvalue co2_cost |   |   |   |   |   co2_costs | [EUR/t_CO2] | 76.5 | 176.2 | 130.3 |   co2_emissions |   |   |   |   |   waste | [t_CO2/MW_th] | 0.165 | 0.165 | 0.0 |   lignite | [t_CO2/MW_th] | 0.393 | 0.393 | 0.0 |   gas | [t_CO2/MW_th] | 0.201 | 0.201 | 0.0 |   nuclear | [t_CO2/MW_th] | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |   oil | [t_CO2/MW_th] | 0.288 | 0.286 | -0.7 |   coal | [t_CO2/MW_th] | 0.335 | 0.377 | 12.5 |   other_non_renewable | [t_CO2/MW_th] | 0.268 |   | -100.0 | No value found
CarlosEpia commented 1 month ago

Total demand comparison. The information was grouped differently in the 2 documents, so no all the values can be compared directly: <!DOCTYPE html>

  | 2035A | 2035B | 2035C | 2037A | 2037B | 2037C | Diff A | Diff B | Diff C -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- Verarbeitendes Gewerbe | 217.2 | 211.8 | 205.7 | 256 | 295.1 | 286 | -38.8 (-17.8%) | -83.3 (-39.3%) | -80.3 (-39%) Haushalt | 121.5 | 118.5 | 115.1 | 134.4 | 157 | 166 | -12.9 (-10.6%) | -38.5 (-32.4%) | -50.9 (-44.2%) GHD | 130.4 | 127.1 | 123.5 | 154.3 | 187.8 | 215.7 | -23.9 (-18.3%) | -60.7 (-47.7%) | -92.2 (-74.6%) Verkehr (ohne Elektromobilität) | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13.6 | 21 | 21 | 2.4 (15%) | -5 (-31.2%) | -5 (-31.2%) Umwandlungssektor (Kohle, Erdgas,Öl) | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 |   |   |   | 5.4 (100%) | 4.1 (100%) | 4.1 (100%) Nettostromverbrauch zzgl. Verteilnetzverluste** | 603.6 | 620.8 | 651.2 | 773.9 | 938.1 | 1002.3 | -170.3 (-28.2%) | -317.3 (-51.1%) | -351.1 (-53.9%)
ClaraBuettner commented 1 month ago

eGon2035 bases on scenario C2035. Could you maybe also add comparisons from that scenario to A und B from the 2037 NEP?

CarlosEpia commented 1 month ago

eGon2035 bases on scenario C2035. Could you maybe also add comparisons from that scenario to A und B from the 2037 NEP?

Sure. Here it can be seen the difference between all the 2037 scenarios and 2035C for installed capacity and demand. For costs there is just one value per year. <!DOCTYPE html>

  | 2035C – 2037A | 2035C – 2037B | 2035C – 2037C -- | -- | -- | -- Kernenergie | 0 | 0 | 0 Braunkohle | 0 | 0 | 0 Steinkohle | 0 | 0 | 0 Erdgas | 8.3 (17.7%) | 8.3 (17.7%) | 8.3 (17.7%) Öl | 1.3 (100%) | 1.3 (100%) | 1.3 (100%) Pumpspeicher | -2 (-19.6%) | -2 (-19.6%) | -2 (-19.6%) sonstige konventionelle Erzeugung | 2.8 (73.6%) | 2.8 (73.6%) | 2.8 (73.6%) Wind onshore | -67.3 (-74%) | -67.3 (-74%) | -70.7 (-77.7%) Wind offshore | -16.5 (-48.5%) | -24.5 (-72%) | -24.5 (-72%) Photovoltaik | -225.3 (-187.5%) | -225.3 (-187.5%) | -225.3 (-187.5%) Biomasse | 4.2 (48.2%) | 4.2 (48.2%) | 4.2 (48.2%) Wasserkraft | 0.3 (5.3%) | 0.3 (5.3%) | 0.3 (5.3%) sonstige regenerative Erzeugung | 0.3 (23%) | 0.3 (23%) | 0.3 (23%) Summe regenerative Erzeugung | -304.3 (-116.7%) | -312.3 (-119.8%) | -315.7 (-121.1%) Summe Erzeugung | -293.9 (-91.1%) | -301.9 (-93.5%) | -305.3 (-94.6%)

<!DOCTYPE html>

  | 2035A | 2035B | 2035C | 2037A | 2037B | 2037C | 2035C – 2037A | 2035C – 2037B | 2035C – 2037C -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- Verarbeitendes Gewerbe | 217.2 | 211.8 | 205.7 | 256 | 295.1 | 286 | -50.3 (-24.4%) | -89.4 (-43.4%) | -80.3 (-39%) Haushalt | 121.5 | 118.5 | 115.1 | 134.4 | 157 | 166 | -19.3 (-16.7%) | -41.9 (-36.4%) | -50.9 (-44.2%) GHD | 130.4 | 127.1 | 123.5 | 154.3 | 187.8 | 215.7 | -30.8 (-24.9%) | -64.3 (-52%) | -92.2 (-74.6%) Verkehr (ohne Elektromobilität) | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13.6 | 21 | 21 | 2.4 (15%) | -5 (-31.2%) | -5 (-31.2%) Umwandlungssektor (Kohle, Erdgas,Öl) | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 |   |   |   | 4.1 (100%) | 4.1 (100%) | 4.1 (100%) Nettostromverbrauch zzgl. Verteilnetzverluste** | 603.6 | 620.8 | 651.2 | 773.9 | 938.1 | 1002.3 | -122.7 (-18.8%) | -286.9 (-44%) | -351.1 (-53.9%)
ClaraBuettner commented 1 month ago

According to figure 5 on page 28 (https://www.netzentwicklungsplan.de/sites/default/files/2023-07/NEP_2037_2045_V2023_2_Entwurf_Teil1_1.pdf) the demands of households and CTS include heat pumps. We model them separately so we should take the data from figure 5 in rows called "davon Geräte"

ClaraBuettner commented 1 month ago

Somehow I can not find the same demand values, the figure mentioned above lists other values. Do you remember where you found the data for demands?