Occasional problem with incidence (massive spike in first year) - Indonesia and maybe others?

optimamodel / optima

Optima HIV software tool

http://optimamodel.com

GNU Lesser General Public License v3.0

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Occasional problem with incidence (massive spike in first year) - Indonesia and maybe others? #1601

Closed Rowanmh closed 7 years ago

Rowanmh commented 7 years ago

Note PWID (NP) incidence in image.

I've seen this a few times, not sure if it has been in different projects or just Indonesia at different stages of the GM. Can work around by fidgeting with settings like force....

Either way, it doesn't seem like the sort of thing that should ever happen, and I couldn't find any obvious thing in the data I could spot like sharing 100% of the time in 2000 with a vastly different number of injections, so I'm not sure where it's coming from.

Rowanmh commented 7 years ago

If it comes up again - seems to be result of very high infectiousness (extremely high sharing rate), combined with 6x multiplier for newly infected PLHIV causing skyrocketing infections over first few time steps beyond the natural equilibrium, which then leads to the slow decline thereafter.

@robyn not sure if you wanted to do any further investigation or can close this

robynstuart commented 7 years ago

@rowanmh let's close it, i think we got to the bottom of it.