Fix ice cube sculpting chance

otland / forgottenserver

A free and open-source MMORPG server emulator written in C++

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Fix ice cube sculpting chance #4766

Closed Sundance closed 1 month ago

Sundance commented 1 month ago

Pull Request Prelude

[x] I have followed proper The Forgotten Server code styling.
[x] I have read and understood the contribution guidelines before making this PR.
[x] I am aware that this PR may be closed if the above-mentioned criteria are not fulfilled.

Changes Proposed

The old values did not account for that ice mammoth sculpting is sequential. https://tibia.fandom.com/wiki/Ice_Cube/Sculpting_Statistics

ranisalt commented 1 month ago

Your fix probably helps, but the numbers on the wiki seem off. The chance for each step to succeed is about 20%, except for the last one which is 5%

Tibia-Stats did a research a few years ago and found out that the chance of sculpting a mammoth is 1 in 2500, which checks out (0.2 0.2 0.2 * 0.05 = 1 / 2500). However, they found that each step has a different chance, contrary to the numbers in Tibia Wiki

I lack the funds to do my own research on that though :laughing:

Sundance commented 1 month ago

I updated with numbers from the tibia-stats research article. With their sample size of 22300~ I think it's the most accurate numbers we'll come across.