venezuela01
commented
1 year ago Part 2: SEMrush Analysis
SEMrush provides bulk backlink analysis and CSV export, along with other advanced features when opting for a monthly subscription.
Backlink Analysis
| Target | Authority Score | Backlinks | Referral Domains | Monthly Visits By Referral | Ratio of Backlinks/Referral Domains |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| z.cash | 40 | 573,618 | 11,500 | 8,955 | 49 |
| getmonero.org | 46 | 65,475,348 | 58,087 | 179,384 | 1,127 |
| oasisprotocol.org | 32 | 56,174 | 3,678 | 98,437 | 15 |
| dusk.network | 31 | 23,021 | 2,469 | N/A | 9 |
| nymtech.net | 31 | 34,414 | 2,699 | 59,043 | 12 |
| mobilecoin.com | 32 | 40,023 | 2,164 | 1,166 | 18 |
| beldex.io | 33 | 1,044,900 | 1,520 | 3,158 | 687 |
| beam.mw | 28 | 220,077 | 2,656 | 1,433 | 82 |
| pirate.black | 28 | 45,255 | 1,800 | N/A | 25 |
| dero.io | 30 | 23,264 | 1,834 | 3,144 | 12 |
| bytecoin.org | 30 | 70,024 | 2,776 | 3,810 | 25 |
| particl.io | 25 | 22,681 | 2,111 | 494 | 10 |
| epic.tech | 22 | 42,506 | 1,117 | 3,484 | 38 |
| oxen.io | 27 | 36,143 | 2,045 | 5,596 | 17 |
| zano.org | 26 | 10,377 | 939 | 1,460 | 11 |
Upon comparing the top 15 privacy coins listed on https://github.com/oxen-io/oxen-improvement-proposals/issues/58, we uncovered some intriguing findings:
- Top market cap coins possess significantly higher authority scores than smaller market cap coins. This suggests that there might be a need to intensify our efforts on SEO.
- Monero appears to have an extraordinarily high number of
Backlinks, disproportionately high compared to itsReferencing Domains. For Monero, theBacklinks/Referencing Domainsratio hovers around 1000, whereas for most other coins like Zcash, this ratio ranges from around 10 to around 50. Beldex is the remaining exception with a ratio of around 600. - This indicates that both Monero and Beldex might be employing bots to inflate the number of backlinks, aiming to gaming search engine rankings.
- Manual sampling of some backlinks seems strengthen this hypothesis.
A common strategy to improve search engine ranking is to analyze a competitor's backlinks, sort them in ascending order by the date of indexing, and then determine which third-party websites contributed to the competitor's search ranking in the early days. Following this, one can approach the same website owners or similar publishers to request a reference, allowing us to reach out to the same segment of potential audience who might have similar pain points and might be interested in similar solutions.
Traffic Channel Analysis
Another interesting observation from the backlink analysis is that, despite oxen.io having a low number of backlinks, its traffic from backlinks is not too far behind that of z.cash. (It is still significantly less than that of getmonero.org, but getmonero.org has a huge number of backlinks).
This becomes more intriguing when we compare the traffic channels of different projects.
| Target | Yearly Visits By All Channels | Referral Percentage | Direct Percentage | Organic Search Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| z.cash | 624K | 6.61% | 25.45% | 66.56% |
| getmonero.org | 3.3M | 8.36% | 31.89% | 57.31% |
| oxen.io | 129.5K | 34.05% | 37.43% | 25.10% |
The data illustrates that oxen.io has a notably high ratio of referral traffic and a notably low ratio of search traffic when compared to other projects such as z.cash or getmonero.org.
Further analysis unveils that the one of predominant sources of referrals to oxen.io stems from a community member's personal website, featuring articles about lokinet and p2p internet 3.0, account for 7.9% of traffic. Unfortunately at least one of articles from cheapskatesguide are slightly negative. Other official Oxen websites like getsession.org (11.2%), optf.ngo (6.3%), and lokinet.org (4.2%) also contribute to the total traffic significantly.
The exceptionally high ratio of referral traffic is not a favorable indicator; rather, it suggests that our SEO efforts have been subpar. Consequently, new users with potential interest have seldom discovered Oxen.io through keyword searches such as "privacy coins". Instead, the traffic primarily consists of returning users who are already familiar with Oxen, Session, or Lokinet, thereby visiting oxen.io directly or through referrals.
Conclusion
Combining what we learned from the backlink analysis and traffic channel analysis, along with a bit of SEO experience and knowledge, we can identify a subtle root problem:
Typically, third-party referrals are not supposed to be the primary source of traffic for a successful website. However, a large number of third-party referrals can improve the search ranking of the target website (via PageRank). High-quality content writing targeting specific keywords also makes a great difference; more details will be provided in the follow-up analysis. Once the target achieves a high ranking on page 1 for certain keyword searches, it will begin to attract significant traffic, this is the process of bootstrapping. After bootstrapping, search engine will be the primary source of traffic to a successful website. In the case of Oxen.io, it's the opposite; the percentage of search engine traffic is low. This indicates a need to enhance our content writing on our own website, as well as increase third-party referrals, until we observe a significant proportion of traffic originating from search engines.
Part 1: Google Trend Analysis
Introduction
ORC-8 proposes the shift from the privacy coin Oxen to a transparent token. Although not explicitly mentioned, the so called decreasing market interest in privacy coins might be a significant factor in decision making. @jagerman commented in the Oxen community: “Pushing privacy coins was a hot thing back in 2018.”
This analysis leverages data from Google Trends to furnish a more nuanced and objective perspective on the market interest.
Data Collection
Data was collected from Google Trends: privacy coin and variants, revealing a peak in the search for "privacy coin" in 2018. Following this peak, there's a gradual increase in the regular search interest for privacy coins.
Keyword Aggregation
To better understand the trend and reduce noise, we exported the Google Trends data as a CSV, summing the top 5 privacy coin-related keyword variants into a single index, and illustrated the trend using a line chart. The chart identifies three peaks of interest in December 2017, June 2021, and March 2022, with the last two peaks being lower than the first one.
Gartner Hype Cycle
Excluding the aforementioned three peaks, the overall trend seems to be on a slow upward trajectory, indicating a healthy growth pattern. This pattern is reminiscent of the Gartner Hype Cycle, showcasing an initial hype (Peak of Inflated Expectations), followed by a Trough of Disillusionment, which might be the current phase in case of the Oxen privacy coin. However, the upcoming Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Productivity depict a promising future, requiring patience and commitment to navigate the Trough of Disillusionment towards the Plateau of Productivity.
Case Study: 'Bitcoin Privacy' Trend
A parallel trend was observed when comparing the keyword 'bitcoin privacy': Google Trend: bitcoin privacy, with peak timings aligning with the previously discussed chart.
Case Study: Monero Market Cap
The market cap of Monero has shown a strong correlation with the search trends of privacy coins over the past few years. Despite experiencing declines from the three peaks in 2018, 2021, and 2022, it has established progressively higher price support levels over time. This trend mirrors the Google Trend results for the term 'privacy coin'.
Case Study: 'Private Messenger' Trend
An additional example is Google Trend: private messenger, which shows a substantial peak in January 2021 when WhatsApp update its privacy policy.
Comparing the current data with that of January 2021, one might surmise a declining market interest in private messengers. However, making decisions based on market hypes could be risky. In the long term, interest in private messengers is likely to progressively grow despite the ephemeral disappearance of market hype. For a similar reason, when analyzing the market interest of privacy coins, we should also carefully decouple short-term hype from long-term potential.
Conclusion
Based on data analysis, we believe that it is fair to say the market interest in privacy coins decreased from the peak in 2018, but it would be inaccurate to conclude that the market is no longer interested in privacy coins. It is fair to say that Oxen didn't capture the privacy coin market in the past few years, but it would be misleading to conclude that the market doesn't want privacy coins.