Closure data vs model - Githubissues

paolosabatini / MyEpide

Simple code and documentation for outbreak description

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Closure data vs model #4

Closed paolosabatini closed 4 years ago

paolosabatini commented 4 years ago

Strategies to achieve it:

Tune the parameters: looks difficult, it does not reproduce the shape in data, or it does but with catastrophic effects.
Change a bit the model: scheduling of delta and k to emulate social limitations applied in Italy

paolosabatini commented 4 years ago

Tuning of parameters did not work, too fast the leading edge.

The k parameter has been scheduled to simulate the social distancing. Delta parameter has been corrected by a factor extracted by the italian number of tests vs time.

A good model has been found.