parksw3 / epidist-paper

Other
10 stars 4 forks source link

Diagnosing issues with exponential scenarios #43

Open seabbs opened 1 year ago

seabbs commented 1 year ago

With the updated fits I am now seeing some samples with infinite values which was not an issue previously. I assume this is linked to the update to the truncation window or zero handling.

Pulling a random sample of 50 of these (there are 658 samples from all replicates and scenarios) it looks like the problem is coming from the truncation only model which I suppose makes sense.

Screenshot 2023-02-17 at 11 51 14

This is the posterior after filtering out infinite values which does make it clear that this is coming from the tail of a problematic distribution (we are filtering at 2 here for plotting purposes) vs just being a numeric instability etc.)

exponential

I think this must be cause by the addition of left truncation. Given that this is a sub-optimal model for the data perhaps we only need to discuss this as the obvious fix is to also include double censoring (unless I introduced a bug in which case of course we need to resolve)?

parksw3 commented 1 year ago

I suspect the infinite values are what we talked about yesterday on dividing by zero. Will take a look today.

Otherwise, posteriors look pretty great...

seabbs commented 1 year ago

I think we are leaving this as is as is and discussing?