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pbs-assess / pacea

An R package to house Pacific Region ecosystem data to help facilitate an ecosystem approach to fisheries.
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Idea for climate projections from Dan and Robyn #12

Closed andrew-edwards closed 11 months ago

andrew-edwards commented 1 year ago

From Dan Dulisea (via Robyn):

"In the gslea ecosystem matrix, we have atmospheric climate projections for different RCP scenario. What is surprising about using them is that the correlation with oceanographic variables like deep water bottom temperature is surprisingly not so bad. You can then derive an index of oceanographic variables into the future. An example of this is on the gslea github page (https://github.com/duplisea/gslea). We also will be getting actual oceanographic projections as well, probably within a month or two, for the Gulf of St Lawrence. If you wanted to try something like that for BC, go to the Climate Atlas of Canada and choose a box nearest to the area where you are considering. I chose the variable surface temperature (which is not sst) and the try a linear model in the historical period of surface temperature with your oceanographic data variable that you think is most relevant. It may work and if not such a great relationship, it may still be better than a scenario approach as it will be based in some kind future that climate models already think is plausible."

andrew-edwards commented 1 year ago

Also, Angelica does projections (and produces averages for 2041-2070). Look into those at some point.

andrew-edwards commented 11 months ago

Moving into Issue #1 to keep all ideas in one place.