STAR Major Uncertainties #2: Historical and Canadian catch

[brianlangseth-NOAA]

From the 2015 report:

"Substantial uncertainty remains in the US catch and discard history. Also, British Columbia catches impact the stock, which appears to be shared. Therefore, this should be accounted for in the US regional stock assessment, or a joint US-Canada assessment."

This was explored as request 6 during review

Request 6: Include BC trawl catches as part of the WA trawl catch time series in the base model.

This issue was also raised in the 2007 report, and presented as future research recommendations:

"Assumptions about stock structure and distributional boundaries should be reviewed in light of information on Canadian/Alaskan catches."

and

"Evaluate the feasibility of a bi-lateral assessment with Canadian scientists, perhaps through the TSC (Technical Subcommittee of US Canada groundfish working group)."

[brianlangseth-NOAA]

Discussed with Jim and Owen on Sept 20. Time to spin up a bilateral partnership has passed. The 2015 assessment report provides additional responses about this issue.

Could include Canada catch in WA fleet. Alternatively could add fleet and possibly comp data to represent Canada.

Theresa has worked on removing any catches from canadian waters but landed in WA, as well as catches from Puget Sound. We will likely need to run the sensitivity with adding Canadian catches back in to explore effects of scale, and possibly add the larger Canadian catches as well.

[brianlangseth-NOAA]

From @aaronmberger-nwfsc , contacts for recent Canadian assessment on canary rockfish are:

Assessment author: Paul Starr, paul@starrfish.net Assessment author: Rowan Haigh, Rowan.Haigh@dfo-mpo.gc.ca Review chair: Ben Davis, Ben.Davis@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Report unlikely to be available for quite a while

[aaronmberger-nwfsc]

I do suspect the new DFO Canary assessment will be posted in a month or two.

[okenk]

2015 research and data needs expands on this topic:

"...we do not believe that incorporating heterogeneous data from different sampling programs and management jurisdictions is feasible without using a spatial model (e.g., our base model), both because different jurisdictions are likely to have different exploitation histories, and because different regions are likely to have different data sources (invalidating the second-stage expansion used in coast-wide models). Given the use of a spatial model, we recommend that efforts proceed to gather, document, analyze, and evaluate Canadian data sources for a joint assessment."

[brianlangseth-NOAA]

On March 9, 2023, Rowan Haigh provided canadian catch data as well as recruitment estimates from the canadian assessment. We can use these as a sensitivity for exploring application of the full extent of canadian catch.

I see two options of doing this:

1. We can add a separate canadian fleet (booo)
2. We add the canadian catches to the washington catches (meh)
3. We apply a catch multiplier to the Washington catch fleets equivalent to the canadian catch (🎉 )