search

pfmc-assessments / lingcod

https://pfmc-assessments.github.io/lingcod/
2 stars 2 forks source link

STAR Panel Request #20 #163

Closed kellijohnson-NOAA closed 3 years ago

kellijohnson-NOAA commented 3 years ago

Request:

For the northern model, develop model runs that might encompass the different types of both observational and structural uncertainty by 1) excluding fishery dependent age data from a model and, 2) running a model with sex-specific selectivity (as in model 420) to capture the "process" uncertainty. Include in the comparison plots and tables the model run in which M is fixed at 0.3 for females.

Rationale:

Model sensitivities without the age data had the best fit to length data and indices, while the model with sex-specific selectivity implemented as freeing up descending limbs of the selectivity curve had the best overall fit to the data. The results of each also bracket a wide range of possible model outcomes.

iantaylor-NOAA commented 3 years ago

Figure and table added to figures\STAR_request20 in commit 25fa2ae and revised in 8a28258 along with update of presentation_sandbox.Rmd.

There will be some reservations about a low state of nature associated with a higher biomass than the base model, so M = 0.3 may be the better choice after all. I'm not sure it meets the criterion for a lower 25% probability, but we can discuss that with the panel tomorrow.

sens_timeseries_n_random

iantaylor-NOAA commented 3 years ago

Evidence that the low state models are pretty low is provided by projections with ACL catch as calculated from the north base using script I'll discuss in #154 as illustrated by this figure (forgot to update caption text using new feature):

compare_2021 n 023 010_2021 n 023 021_2021 n 023 022_2021 n 023 031

kellijohnson-NOAA commented 3 years ago

Added to main presentation in 4654dc5

kellijohnson-NOAA commented 3 years ago

@iantaylor-NOAA can we close this issue or is there information that needs to make it into the document?

iantaylor-NOAA commented 3 years ago

I think this was just left open until we had documented our states of nature for the north model in the report, which didn't get done until a few weeks after the STAR.