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phajy / Sesto2024

Preparation for the "From the Dolomites to the Event Horizon: Sledging Down the Black Hole Potential Well" 2024 meeting in Sesto. Will include talk, data, and calculations.
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MCMC fitting of thick disc model #11

Open phajy opened 2 months ago

phajy commented 2 months ago

WIP to perform MCMC fitting, in this case for a thick disc model. I've not run this yet, but it would benefit from parallelisation.

phajy commented 2 months ago

Need to do some debugging and check the priors as something has gone wrong. Parameter values are unreasonably well constrained. Could this be related to cacheing - does the fit result not change if the parameters values are changed only subtly?

Iterations        = 1001:1:6000
Number of chains  = 1
Samples per chain = 5000
Wall duration     = 3013.45 seconds
Compute duration  = 3013.45 seconds
parameters        = K_1, a_1, θ_1, h_1, η_1, K_2, a_2, K_3
internals         = lp, n_steps, is_accept, acceptance_rate, log_density, hamiltonian_energy, hamiltonian_energy_error, max_hamiltonian_energy_error, tree_depth, numerical_error, step_size, nom_step_size

Summary Statistics
  parameters      mean       std      mcse   ess_bulk   ess_tail      rhat   ess_per_sec 
      Symbol   Float64   Float64   Float64    Float64    Float64   Float64       Float64 

         K_1    0.6016    0.0000    0.0000    10.5620    18.3650    2.1226        0.0035
         a_1    0.7657    0.0000    0.0000    12.9703    19.2807    1.1503        0.0043
         θ_1   44.6480    0.0000    0.0000    12.2089    28.0058    1.5379        0.0041
         h_1    2.2184    0.0000    0.0000    12.6782    24.9203    1.2570        0.0042
         η_1    0.8199    0.0000    0.0000    11.0593    26.5691    2.0740        0.0037
         K_2    0.6686    0.0000    0.0000    11.1157    18.4005    2.0280        0.0037
         a_2    2.1481    0.0000    0.0000    11.0868    23.5977    1.7374        0.0037
         K_3    0.3349    0.0000    0.0000    10.5624    18.3610    2.1230        0.0035

Quantiles
  parameters      2.5%     25.0%     50.0%     75.0%     97.5% 
      Symbol   Float64   Float64   Float64   Float64   Float64 

         K_1    0.6016    0.6016    0.6016    0.6016    0.6016
         a_1    0.7657    0.7657    0.7657    0.7657    0.7657
         θ_1   44.6480   44.6480   44.6480   44.6480   44.6480
         h_1    2.2184    2.2184    2.2184    2.2184    2.2184
         η_1    0.8199    0.8199    0.8199    0.8199    0.8199
         K_2    0.6686    0.6686    0.6686    0.6686    0.6686
         a_2    2.1481    2.1481    2.1481    2.1481    2.1481
         K_3    0.3349    0.3349    0.3349    0.3349    0.3349
phajy commented 1 month ago

Might skip this for the talk. Can add later, and will need for the paper.