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philusnarh / sarkpro

Dicussion of on-going research on AI
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Predict Exchange Rate Using Machine Learning Approach #1

Open philusnarh opened 5 years ago

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

So kindly list the project outline of this research

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

This is a great project

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Any reason you're comparing with SA?

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

The economy of SA is quite stable as compared to Ghnan. So I wanted to compare the two and see how good their respective predictions would be. Perhaps we can conclude that AI is good in predicting for countries that are stable or prediction does not depend on stability

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

so just simply perging a stable economy against and unstable one

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

okay, so are we to use the other factors measure the exchange rate?

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Precisely.

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Actally, I can even get same data for sub-saharan Africa. But lets work on this first and see how it turns out.

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

great!!

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

I've asked Honourable Alex to join us. I believe he can make more inputs in this.

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Perfect. Alexopapa

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

But do you have more variables to measure the exchange rate? I think just 3 is too small. All the same, I'll do something so we see. We need more data to train.

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

well, technically, these are major variables that econmists use. But will fish around and see how it pans out.

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

My approach to use::

Explore the data

well, technically, these are major variables that econmists use. But will fish around and see how it pans out.

okay, so we need to justify this in write-up with proper reference.

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Remember to add the source of data too.

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

The write-up will be done to perfection. The source of the data is THE WORLD BANK

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Will surely add it

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Will do something and share!!

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Yes Dr. Github is cool paa... i lik e it

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

I'm glad you like it. We need to introduce this to our future students.

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Yeah. We shall do exactly that

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Some descriptive analysis::

  1. Correlation between the variables

corr_sns

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Time Series Projection

1. Linear Scale

sers0

2. Log Scale

ser1

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Multivariate Analysis:

1. Looking at the whole datasets

image

Here, neither broad money nor policy rate is significant at a significant level of . The strong collinear of these predictors cause each variable to fail the t-test in the model with exception of International reserve A. Although two of the predictors fail individual t-test, overall regression is significant, meaning these 3 predictors are jointly informative, according to the F-test. Also, notice how the goodness of fit test produce an . In summary, we have observed that multicollinearity has thrown off the results of individual t-tests. On the other hand, an F-test that judges the explanatory power of all the predictors collectively, gave an improved outcome.

NB: Read multicollinearity from this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multicollinearity

2. Looking at Ghana only

image

3. Looking at South Africa only image

NB:: From these, we can generate multiple regression equation.

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN):

image

image

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Training your model image

image

Link to codes:: https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/gw36jnqzltgz43i/exchange_rate_01.ipynb

https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/vavgxjveoy9egdq/exchange_03.ipynb

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Proposed Titles::

  1. Prediction of Ghana's Exchange Rate I: A Comparative Statistical Analysis Approach

  2. Prediction of Ghana's Exchange Rate II: A Supervised Regression Approach

  3. Prediction of Ghana's Exchange Rate III: A Regression-based Artificial Neural network Approach

akotodanso commented 5 years ago

Training your model image

image

Link to codes:: https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/gw36jnqzltgz43i/exchange_rate_01.ipynb

https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/vavgxjveoy9egdq/exchange_03.ipynb

Can the size of the image be made a bit larger size like (12,12)?

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

heatmap

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Change effected

On Fri, May 31, 2019 at 1:03 PM akotodanso notifications@github.com wrote:

Training your model [image: image] https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8245353/58686698-cb83ab80-837f-11e9-87e2-66c5ca08385d.png

[image: image] https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8245353/58686747-eeae5b00-837f-11e9-9c2f-fea757f92b9d.png

Link to codes::

https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/gw36jnqzltgz43i/exchange_rate_01.ipynb

https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/vavgxjveoy9egdq/exchange_03.ipynb

Can the size of the image be made a bit larger size like (12,12)?

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philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Training your model image image Link to codes:: https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/gw36jnqzltgz43i/exchange_rate_01.ipynb https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/vavgxjveoy9egdq/exchange_03.ipynb

Can the size of the image be made a bit larger size like (12,12)?

Change effected

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Left is original distribution Right: When we apply normalisation

image

image

oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Hello Dr. Have seen the diagram. This may suggest that prediction with the normalized data may be better than the raw data. We can do a few predictions with both and see which is better. Since the data is normalized, then we may consider using the normal distribution and see what it may give us

On Sun, Jun 2, 2019 at 12:26 PM philusnarh notifications@github.com wrote:

Left is original distribution Right: When we apply normalisation

[image: image] https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/8245353/58759909-6a9bd500-8531-11e9-9e1f-d6fcd401ad01.png

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philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Residual Plots

  1. Raw Data behaviour

image

  1. Transformation

image

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Edited Neural Network!!

https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/dl.dropbox.com/s/x5r90gbqpmu2okf/exchange_03a.ipynb

Sarkodie commented 5 years ago

Hello Guys, it has been a long time now. Hope we are good? we need to move to action soon. chooooboooiiiiii . Ghana Science Association are ready for us

Sarkodie commented 5 years ago

At a deep neural training workshop in African Institute for Mathematical Sciences and it is good papa...... lets finish the interest rate project now and move to others

Sarkodie commented 5 years ago

maybe we can even work on ' Marriage data and train it to see the possibility of a couple divorcing after marriage..... Interesting times ahead.

Sarkodie commented 5 years ago

also we can work on " Time inefficiencies and its usage on productivity.....

philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Do we have the variables to measure and the data in particular?

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:07 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

also we can work on " Time inefficiencies and its usage on productivity.....

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oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Not that l know of, but will ask around.

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:50 philusnarh, notifications@github.com wrote:

Do we have the variables to measure and the data in particular?

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:07 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

also we can work on " Time inefficiencies and its usage on productivity.....

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philusnarh commented 5 years ago

hmm!!, ML on marriage. Do we have the data?

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:06 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

maybe we can even work on ' Marriage data and train it to see the possibility of a couple divorcing after marriage..... Interesting times ahead.

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oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

But for the variables, we can consider:Age difference, financial standing, religion, Academic qualification, etc etc etc

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:55 Richmond Sarkodie, rsarkodie@mucg.edu.gh wrote:

Not that l know of, but will ask around.

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:50 philusnarh, notifications@github.com wrote:

Do we have the variables to measure and the data in particular?

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:07 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

also we can work on " Time inefficiencies and its usage on productivity.....

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philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Great, when is their next submission? For now, the pressure they small for here. I have 3 months to return home. We can put in these things in the month of December.

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 2:57 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

Hello Guys, it has been a long time now. Hope we are good? we need to move to action soon. chooooboooiiiiii . Ghana Science Association are ready for us

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Sarkodie commented 5 years ago

If data is not readily available, we can collect it ourselves

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:53 oseisarkodie, notifications@github.com wrote:

But for the variables, we can consider:Age difference, financial standing, religion, Academic qualification, etc etc etc

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:55 Richmond Sarkodie, rsarkodie@mucg.edu.gh wrote:

Not that l know of, but will ask around.

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:50 philusnarh, notifications@github.com wrote:

Do we have the variables to measure and the data in particular?

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:07 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

also we can work on " Time inefficiencies and its usage on productivity.....

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oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

For now they are working on their online submission system which will be out soon. With that one can publish anytime their work is accepted. Then later they will compile into a book

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:56 philusnarh, notifications@github.com wrote:

Great, when is their next submission? For now, the pressure they small for here. I have 3 months to return home. We can put in these things in the month of December.

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 2:57 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

Hello Guys, it has been a long time now. Hope we are good? we need to move to action soon. chooooboooiiiiii . Ghana Science Association are ready for us

— You are receiving this because you authored the thread. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub < https://github.com/philusnarh/sarkpro/issues/1?email_source=notifications&email_token=AB65A2NPP5M24TB2P37PYR3QCA3FDA5CNFSM4HRFLSG2YY3PNVWWK3TUL52HS4DFVREXG43VMVBW63LNMVXHJKTDN5WW2ZLOORPWSZGOD3D4AHQ#issuecomment-516407326 , or mute the thread < https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AB65A2M2VUPDSGUO3TO7KRDQCA3FDANCNFSM4HRFLSGQ

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philusnarh commented 5 years ago

But for the variables, we can consider:Age difference, financial standing, religion, Academic qualification, etc etc etc … On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:55 Richmond Sarkodie, @.> wrote: Not that l know of, but will ask around. On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:50 philusnarh, @.> wrote: > Do we have the variables to measure and the data in particular? > > On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:07 PM Sarkodie @.***> > wrote: > > > also we can work on " Time inefficiencies and its usage on > > productivity..... > > > > — > > You are receiving this because you authored the thread. > > Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub > > < > #1?email_source=notifications&email_token=AB65A2MYAJE4XKWMIOZ3D3TQCA4K3A5CNFSM4HRFLSG2YY3PNVWWK3TUL52HS4DFVREXG43VMVBW63LNMVXHJKTDN5WW2ZLOORPWSZGOD3D43YQ#issuecomment-516410850 > >, > > or mute the thread > > < > https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AB65A2PZ5IO4DFCOR645W6TQCA4K3ANCNFSM4HRFLSGQ > > > > . > > > > — > You are receiving this because you commented. > Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub > <#1?email_source=notifications&email_token=AMGSW7F6N6LRMZINI6NNFULQCBBLLA5CNFSM4HRFLSG2YY3PNVWWK3TUL52HS4DFVREXG43VMVBW63LNMVXHJKTDN5WW2ZLOORPWSZGOD3EA56I#issuecomment-516427513>, > or mute the thread > https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AMGSW7FNUDFWXSUQSCVWOZ3QCBBLLANCNFSM4HRFLSGQ > . >

So from primary source!!. We need like 1000plus data size oooh. This will be expensive. Unless we use the online approach by developing a google form from a standard questionnaire!!!

I think we should also look at projects that probably will give us some funds.

eg.

  1. Agric: disease classification
  2. Medicine: Anomaly detection on heartbeat using electrocardiogram data, Cancer datasets, etc.
  3. Astronomical Data, sensor analysis, RFI, data compression techniques
  4. Weather data: temperature, humidity, rainfall, etc
philusnarh commented 5 years ago

okay, that's an improvement. Thanks for the info.

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:59 PM oseisarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

For now they are working on their online submission system which will be out soon. With that one can publish anytime their work is accepted. Then later they will compile into a book

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:56 philusnarh, notifications@github.com wrote:

Great, when is their next submission? For now, the pressure they small for here. I have 3 months to return home. We can put in these things in the month of December.

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 2:57 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

Hello Guys, it has been a long time now. Hope we are good? we need to move to action soon. chooooboooiiiiii . Ghana Science Association are ready for us

— You are receiving this because you authored the thread. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <

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oseisarkodie commented 5 years ago

Right. Man needs cash

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 16:08 philusnarh, notifications@github.com wrote:

okay, that's an improvement. Thanks for the info.

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 3:59 PM oseisarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

For now they are working on their online submission system which will be out soon. With that one can publish anytime their work is accepted. Then later they will compile into a book

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:56 philusnarh, notifications@github.com wrote:

Great, when is their next submission? For now, the pressure they small for here. I have 3 months to return home. We can put in these things in the month of December.

On Tue, Jul 30, 2019 at 2:57 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

Hello Guys, it has been a long time now. Hope we are good? we need to move to action soon. chooooboooiiiiii . Ghana Science Association are ready for us

— You are receiving this because you authored the thread. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub <

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akotodanso commented 5 years ago

Masa, make steady oo. You want make Ghanaian women beat we up?

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 15:06 Sarkodie, notifications@github.com wrote:

maybe we can even work on ' Marriage data and train it to see the possibility of a couple divorcing after marriage..... Interesting times ahead.

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philusnarh commented 5 years ago

Okay, programming they inside or pure theoretical.

On Tue, 30 Jul 2019, 2:59 PM Sarkodie notifications@github.com wrote:

At a deep neural training workshop in African Institute for Mathematical Sciences and it is good papa...... lets finish the interest rate project now and move to others

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