search

project-aero / measles-ews

A research compedium (data, code, manuscript) for project on detecting critical slowing down in measles dynamics.
MIT License
0 stars 0 forks source link

single filtering failure #4

Closed atredennick closed 6 years ago

atredennick commented 6 years ago

There is a persistent filtering failure, which I've traced to the conditional likelihood for the first observation. The problem is that cases gets zeroed out at each observation, meaning cases = 0 for all particles when evaluating the first observation. It's also just better practice to estimate states right before the first observation. So, that's what needs to be done.

I will set up the pomp models to start 1 week before the first observation, ensuring that cases != 0.

atredennick commented 6 years ago

Commit b82e43828e047be198460441dc64eaaff1257153 closes this issue.