kkarrancsu
commented
1 year ago We analyzed the impacts of baseline crossing and the analysis can be found here.
The following is a condensed summary to help build further intuition: Our models use three primary inputs (which can be considered proxies to user behavior/engagement w/ Filecoin) to forecast Filecoin econometrics. They are: raw byte onboarding power / day (RBP/day), sector renewal rate (RR), and fil+ rate (FPR). The following bullet points are simplified and coarse approximations of how these inputs affect econometrics related to BLC.
- Baseline crossing and network minting only depend on network raw-byte power, which depends on RBP/day and RR. FPR does not affect when BLC will happen.
- Increases in both RBP and RR push baseline crossing further out into the future. Decreases in RBP and RR bring baseline crossing closer to the present. If RBP and RR have opposing trends, then BLC is more sensitive to RR than RBP. This means that increases in RR and lower rates of RBP may still push the baseline crossing out further into the future.
- Network QAP is a function of RBP and FPR. High FPR’s lead to high Network QAP. Again, NetworkQAP has no affect on BLC.
- Higher Network QAP leads to a lower pledge. The reverse is also true. Lower Network QAP leads to a higher relative pledge.
- ROI is inversely related to Pledge, and directly proportional to minting rate.
- BLC causes minting rate to decrease. Rate of decrease depends on trends of RR and RBP.
- If rate of decrease is minting is balanced by rate of decrease in pledge, then ROI will stabilize.
- If rate of decrease in minting exceeds rate of decrease in pledge, then ROI will decrease.
- If rate of decrease in minting is less than rate of decrease in pledge, then ROI will increase.
There's also another useful tool (with less inputs than the starboard tool) that might be of interest created by block science.
Request Summary
From @anorth
Is there a good explainer of Filecoin's baseline minting model somewhere. The description in the spec doesn't provide good intuition for how incentives change for SPs, especially not about crossing downwards. For example, is the naive intuition that "as the baseline function overtakes raw power, rewards to miners will drop, which reduces incentives to mine" wrong? How? What are the dynamics here? I simultaneously have the concept that below-baseline mining is a collaborative rather than competitive game, but can't reconcile that with the first intuition. Less rewards is less inflation, but how much to SPs benefit from that vs other holders? How does above/below baseline affect an SPs ability to predict their returns and how they would vary with other SPs growth, resulting inflation etc...
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