pymc-labs / pymc-marketing

Bayesian marketing toolbox in PyMC. Media Mix (MMM), customer lifetime value (CLV), buy-till-you-die (BTYD) models and more.
https://www.pymc-marketing.io/
Apache License 2.0
593 stars 139 forks source link

Add study case with alternative to gamma-gamma model #63

Open ricardoV94 opened 1 year ago

ricardoV94 commented 1 year ago

If we don't summarize individual transaction values, there should be much more flexibility in how to model user latent "spend", with e.g, timeseries component, glm predictors, ....

Would be nice to add a study case of such, perhaps motivating new summary/plotting/prediction functionality of the library.

ColtAllen commented 1 year ago

The Google Cloud Docs contain a guide on how to do this with a DL model:

https://cloud.google.com/ai-platform/docs/clv-prediction-with-offline-training-train

This paper proposes Gaussian Processes for CLV modeling, which should be within the capabilities of pymc:

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/26107/ansari_Bayesian_Nonparametric.pdf

If there is interest in adding a spend model with covariates, the GP model is worth exploring further.

ricardoV94 commented 1 year ago

GP model sounds interesting, we could perhaps start with a developer notebook just to see it works well before implementing a packaged model?

ColtAllen commented 1 year ago

That seems like the sensible approach.

Can someone more familiar with GP modeling in pymc assign themselves to this? Right now my focus is on replicating all functionality of the lifetimes library.