Improve demand modelling

[davide-f]

Describe the feature you'd like to see

The demand inputs shall be improved. In particular some options may be:

• [ ] (mid-term/difficult) Create/use a more advanced demand data package (e.g. demand_creator)
• [ ] (short-term/"easy") Update GEGIS data: this means rerunning GEGIS and update our input data
• [ ] #1036

These activities are alternative approaches that can support large-scale application of pypsa-earth and we welcome contributors :D

[ekatef]

A possible approach to tackle point 3 is using data from some neighbouring countries to reproduce the annual profile more or less properly and scaling the profile by the annual value. Happy to support if anyone is willing to make such an exercise :)

As a little comment, it could probably make sense to add an option to the workflow/a notebook to documentation for rescaling demand profile against annual values. As an illustration, there is a result of discrepancy assessment for one of GEGIS macro-regions:

Values of -100% correspond to those countries for which no demand data are currently available in our GEGIS-derived database.

[ekatef]

@SermishaNarayana As promised, sharing some sources on the approaches we are currently using for demand simulation.

Development

• GEGIS demand package developed as a part of work presented in [Mattsson et al. 2021];
• Synde package has been created to execute GEGIS workflow.

Currently, we are using Synde outputs calculated to a particular scenario and implemented into pypsa-earth workflow as a datakit (data/ssp2-2.6, where SSP2-2.6 stands for one of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the weather data correspond to 2011, 2013 or 2018).

Academic publications

• A. Toktarova, L. Gruber, M. Hlusiak, D. Bogdanov, C. Breyer, Long term load projection in high resolution for all countries globally, International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 111 (2019) 160–181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2019.03.055
• N. Mattsson, V. Verendel, F. Hedenus, L. Reichenberg, An autopilot for energy models – Automatic generation of renewable supply curves, hourly capacity factors and hourly synthetic electricity demand for arbitrary world regions, Energy Strategy Reviews 33 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100606

[SermishaNarayana]

@ekatef Thank you for sharing the sources :)