Early questions and discussions

[immartian]

we can start to ask questions (any), @ElyWang0127, to shape a useful data model to understand the global(local) market linking to different economic factors(CPI, interest rate, currency ratio, the housing market, commodity, stock, futures, fund, and bond. etc.)

[immartian]

Possible data sources:

• Berkeley API list: https://guides.lib.berkeley.edu/c.php?g=4395&p=7995952
• World bank: https://data.worldbank.org/ (free)
• IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/Data (free)
• OECD: https://data.oecd.org/api/ (free)
• DBnomics: https://db.nomics.world/ (free)
• Nasdaq: https://docs.data.nasdaq.com (free)
• TRADING ECONOMICS: https://tradingeconomics.com/analytics/api.aspx
• BEA: https://apps.bea.gov/api/signup/index.cfm (free)
• OEC: https://oec.world/

Global liquidity:

• BIS: https://www.bis.org/statistics/gli.htm?m=2690
• Cross Border Capital: http://liquidity.com/Liqresearch.html

Markets:

• Ycharts: https://ycharts.com/
• DataBento: https://databento.com/

[ElyWang0127]

*** Inflation GDP (maybe similar influence to CPI… or related to consumers confidence?

• Does currency ratio means exchange rate?
• How do these factors affect the assets price? Like the inflation causes the price increase but demand decrease, overall the price is supposed to drop… Any exception?

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On Jun 13, 2022, at 17:25, Lucia @.***> wrote:

 we can start to ask questions (any), @ElyWang0127, to shape a useful data model to understand the global(local) market linking to different economic factors(CPI, interest rate, currency ratio, the housing market, commodity, stock, futures, fund, and bond. etc.)

— Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub, or unsubscribe. You are receiving this because you were mentioned.

[immartian]

• Are global liquidity (like this article https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-cenbank-analysis-2021-05-20/ indicated) a major drive to market boom while weaving the risks of over-heated then inflated economy?
• If so, the boom of the economy in 2021 was quite "fake", and once the market was boosted by the eased money from central banks, then much more cheap money went to market, which may lead to inflation; however, I don't understand there's a contradict factor which cheap money also leads to more products than it needs(jobs, income factored), which should downgrade the inflation, isn't it?

[ElyWang0127]

if money become cheap, goods become expensive relatively. isn’t it a kinda inflation? and how could cheap money create more products, e.g. jobs?

Sent from my iPhone

On Jun 14, 2022, at 21:39, Lucia @.***> wrote:  Are global liquidity (like this article https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-cenbank-analysis-2021-05-20/ indicated) a major drive to market boom while weaving the risks of over-heated then inflated economy? If so, the boom of the economy in 2021 was quite "fake", and once the market was boosted by the eased money from central banks, then much more cheap money went to market, which may lead to inflation; however, I don't understand there's a contradict factor which cheap money also leads to more products than it needs(jobs, income factored), which should downgrade the inflation, isn't it? — Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub, or unsubscribe. You are receiving this because you were mentioned.

[immartian]

if money become cheap, goods become expensive relatively. isn’t it a kinda inflation?

I guess cheap money means money loaned with low interest, hence need you pay fewer installments.

and how could cheap money create more products, e.g. jobs?

if businesses loaned cheap money, they can of course produce more goods but also possible no buyers if consumers can't afford it(if their income didn't get boosted at the same time)... my two cents

[ElyWang0127]

I guess cheap money means money loaned with low interest, hence need you pay fewer installments. —> it seems equal to interest rate cut, which stimulates consumption and investment, and liquidity increase as well. while with those demanding of consumption/investment increase, the price will also increase, which will cause inflation accordingly.

if businesses loaned cheap money, they can of course produce more goods but also possible no buyers if consumers can't afford it —> it seems benefit business since company can financing easier to develop or expand, which may increase the stock price. while if other costs (consumptions) is higher, the profit may also not favorable.

My confusion about interest rate vs housing/bond long term investment: if the interest rate increase, the mortgage of housing also increase, and price will reduce accordingly. while when price is low, the demand will also increase, which will cause price increase. the same to the bond, interest rate increase will decrease the price, which increase the demand of bond and price accordingly. —> is it positive or negative correlation between interest rate and bond/housing price? —> is it determined by market supply demand relationship, or by issuers?

Sent from my iPhone

On Jun 15, 2022, at 00:16, Lucia @.***> wrote:

 if money become cheap, goods become expensive relatively. isn’t it a kinda inflation?

I guess cheap money means money loaned with low interest, hence need you pay fewer installments.

and how could cheap money create more products, e.g. jobs?

if businesses loaned cheap money, they can of course produce more goods but also possible no buyers if consumers can't afford it(if their income didn't get boosted at the same time)... my two cents

— Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub, or unsubscribe. You are receiving this because you were mentioned.

[immartian]

—> it seems benefit business since company can financing easier to develop or expand, which may increase the stock price. while if other costs (consumptions) is higher, the profit may also not favorable.

Over the wallmart case we read before(https://www.thesundaily.my/business/us-consumer-spending-remains-resilient-even-as-prices-rise-HY9212944), the surge price of consumer goods also affect businesses' cost, like gas cost or materials, thus the profit won't be necessary to be higher.

if the interest rate increase, the mortgage of housing also increase, and price will reduce accordingly. while when price is low, the demand will also increase, which will cause price increase.

Ya, there will always be latency, from minutes to months, to see money flows from places(hands) to places, it's why it's getting harder to predict.