Wager coordination platform

[quinn-dougherty]

Web app where you post a belief, odds, and dollar amounts at which you'd take a bet. Then it matches you with people who've posted offers to take bets near inverted odds on similar beliefs.

• Some light NLP to determine similarity of posted beliefs
• Some central prompts that articulate beliefs that the app owners expect lots of traffic on
• Resolution and payout could either be done centrally or through some decentralized manner.
• Maybe pay people cuts to act as resolvers and auditors for less than obvious beliefs?
• Light social network based on profiles drawn from ledger of previous bets and every bet they're currently soliciting.

[NunoSempere]

See https://biatob.com for something similar but not quite what you are describing.

[quinn-dougherty]

Keiran Harris - Betting exchange focused on debates between individuals

Bryan Caplan argues that “bets are one of the best ways to (a) turn vague verbiage into precise statements, and (b) discover the extent of genuine disagreement about such precise statements.” But it isn't easy to set up bets with people you don’t already trust, so many potential bets don’t get made. If instead one person could say, “I just set up a bet on X.com on our point of disagreement, here’s the link if you want to accept” — many more bets might get made. The site could also keep a public record of bettor’s long-run track records — which Caplan thinks is one of the best ways to assess thinkers’ credibility.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MBDHjwDvhDnqisyW2/awards-for-the-future-fund-s-project-ideas-competition