Write documentation for transport demand

[mabijkerk]

We repeatedly get questions about our calculations for transport demand. It would be efficient to write this down once properly and then be able to refer people to our documentation.

The main question is: how do we arrive from final demand for the transport sector, to application (modal) split, to technology splits and to useful demand in pkm or tkm.

@kaskranenburgQ or @kndehaan it would be good if one of you could pick this up at some point. I do wonder whether this should go on the main documentation or on the for contributors documentation?

[mabijkerk]

A first draft given to one of our users:

• Quintel: the final demand for national transport per carrier is taken from the energy balance as a starting point. For example “Final consumption – transport sector – rail” was 30.5 PJ in France in 2019. Using POTEnCIA, the demand for rail is broken down into applications, with 14% going to freight trains, 12% to trams and 74% to passenger trains. This gives 22.6 PJ of electricity demand for passenger trains. In the technology source analysis for electric passenger trains the passenger transport efficiency is determined to be 3.704 pkm/ MJ. This gives 83.7 bln pkm transported by electric passenger trains in 2019 in France.
  • This process is done for each application (road, rail etc.), for each mode (cars, buses etc.), for each fuel (electricity, diesel etc.) and for each transport type (freight and passenger).
  • We can then calculate the modal split for freight and passenger transport, based on the total pkm or tkm transported by each mode.
  • We can then calculate the technology split for each technology, based on the total pkm or tkm transported by each mode.

[mabijkerk]

We could do the same for households and buildings heat demand data. A first draft given to one of our users:

• The final demand for households / buildings per carrier is taken from the energy balance as a starting point.
  • For households, the energy balance flow “Final consumption – other sectors – households” is taken.
  • For buildings, the energy balance flow “Final consumption – other sectors – commercial and public services is taken”. Electricity demand for central ICT (NACE) is estimated, subtracted from this sector and allocated to a dedicated subsector in the ETM.
• For example “Final consumption – other sectors – households” for electricity was 575.0 PJ in France in 2019. Using POTEnCIA (for reference, see the sheet RES_hh_fec), the electricity demand from households is broken down into applications, with 14% going to cooking, 1% to cooling, 16% to hot water, 2% to lighting, 22% to space heating and 46% to appliances.
  • Note that these applications splits are currently being updated for ENTSO using the Eurostat table “Disaggregated final energy consumption in households”.
  • Using POTEnCIA (for reference, see the sheet RES_hhdet_fec), the electricity demand from households for space heating and hot water is broken down into technologies, with 85% going to electric heaters, 12% going to heatpumps (air), 1% going to hybrid heatpumps (air) and 2% going to heatpumps (ground).
• The heat efficiency of electric heaters is assumed to be 100%. This means that the useful heat produced by electric heaters produced in 2019 in France is determined to be 106 PJ for space heating and 73 PJ for hot water.
  • This process is done for each application (cooling, cooking etc.), for each carrier (electricity, coal etc.), for each technology (electric heater, heat pumps etc.).
  • We can then calculate the total useful heat produced for space heating and set the total useful demand heat equal to that.
  • We can then calculate the total useful heat produced for hot water and set the total useful demand heat equal to that.