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quintel / etmodel

Professional interface of the Energy Transition model.
https://energytransitionmodel.com/
MIT License
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Fix LOLE for huge Wind capacity #1770

Closed JonasVoorzanger closed 10 years ago

JonasVoorzanger commented 10 years ago

When there is a lot of wind capacity installed, adding extra wind capacity leads to a higher LOLE. Although this is an extreme scenario, it should still be fixed.

Starting point

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Adding extra wind capacity

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jorisberkhout commented 10 years ago

This behaviour is caused by a rounding error. The reliable electricity production capacity is defined as (p1 * x + p2) / (x +q1) / x * x where x is the total installed wind capacity and p1, p2, q1 are defined in the LOLE documentation. For practical reasons, we define a capacity credit for wind as (p1 * x + p2) / (x +q1) / x and multiply this capacity by the total installed wind capacity x. This does not result in the same reliable electricity production capacity as the first equation.

In the situation that @JonasVoorzanger describes, adding more offshore wind turbines results in a lower reliable capacity, which in turn causes the LOLE to increase.

I don't know how to solve this and, since it causes only minor changes in the LOLE, I suggest to close this issue. What do you think @AlexanderWirtz and @ChaelKruip ?

ChaelKruip commented 10 years ago

Closing.