The primary energy table seems to lack geothermal and ambient energy

[pietervanbreevoort]

The primary energy use table/graph does not seem to contain geothermal energy and ambient heat/cold. Does this impact the totals? Or are they included in another carrier?

[ChaelKruip]

Assigning to myself.

[ChaelKruip]

On-hold until https://github.com/quintel/etsource/issues/847 is resolved. If we decide that we don't show ambient carriers, the current definition of primary demand is ok and no action is needed to improve the primary demand mekko.

[ChaelKruip]

We have decided to remove ambient carriers from the final demand link-group. I think, however, that we should consider to include renewable heat (equivalent to renewable electricity) in the primary energy mekko. I don't know how to do this yet.

Moving this issue to December deploy.

[ChaelKruip]

The issue with renewable heat in the form of ambient_heat is that it is used directly by nodes left of final demand. All primary demand queries that fill the Mekko use the final demand group as a starting point. To include the ambient carriers, the nodes that use ambient heat (and possibly cold) need to be added to gqueries in a different way, possibly one by one.

[ChaelKruip]

The inclusion of ambient heat and geothermal heat in the primary demand Mekko has pro's and con's:

PRO

• It is nice to see what carriers are replacing fossil fuels on a primary demand level
• We include renewable electricity already, adding heat would make the ETM more consistent

CON

• The queries needed to make this work are going to be hard to maintain
• The queries needed to make this work will not be very transparent

I looked at the website of the IEA to see what they do and their closest thing is a flow diagram. Left, on the 'primary side' of the diagram they include a 'heat production' and a 'geothermal production' category for some countries. The heat is not further specified so I assume that this would be heat production from other carriers then explicitly shown in the Sankey, which likely would be 'ambient' but this is not very clear to me. Also, the heat is not used anywhere so it seems that the 'primary produced heat' is a statistical artifact. The geothermal flow is used in power plants and a bit in their 'other' sector.

So shall I add geothermal + ambient heat in the primary demand Mekko? @dennisschoenmakers @AlexanderWirtz @jorisberkhout let your voice be heard!

[ChaelKruip]

Including ambient heat and geothermal heat in the primary demand Mekko could be done in transparent en easy to maintain way if we add ambient_heat as final demand nodes in the graph. This would result in ambient_heat (and cold) also being included in Final demand charts and calculations based on final demand. We need to find out to what extend this would be in line with the definitions for renewability and energy use as currently in use by e.g., the IEA.

Assigning to @AlexanderWirtz to find out what the statistical conventions are for the inclusion of ambient_heat, ambient_cold and geothermal.

[AlexanderWirtz]

This source by the IEA has the following to say on the matter.

Page 12, footnote 9:

Heat pumps are not included in IEA renewable energy statistics. Energy from geothermal, aerothermal or hydrothermal sources that is upgraded with heat pumps is included as renewable heat within the EU legislation for renewable energy. The contribution is accounted for in the monitoring only if the COP is high enough (COP >2.62), to compensate for the energy lost in the electricity production (EC, 2009).

HOW it is included is not entirely clear... or rather entirely unclear. I have sent an email to CBS to ask if they can clarify matters.

[AlexanderWirtz]

Response from CBS on Wednesday November 19th, 2014:

In de reguliere energiestatistieken van IEA en Eurostat telt energie uit de ondiepe bodem en buitenlucht gewonnen door warmtepompen niet mee. Voor de Richtlijn Hernieuwbare Energie wel. De rapportages voor deze Richtlijn zijn in grote lijnen gebaseerd op de reguliere energiestatistieken aangevuld met extra informatie die we apart aan Eurostat leveren (en niet aan IEA). Het gaat om:

• Energie voor warmtepompen
• Informatie over de duurzaamheid van de gebruikte vloeibare biomassa (niet duurzaam telt niet mee voor de RED) en de eventuele dubbeltelling voor de vervoersdoelstelling uit de RED (voor biobrandstoffen uit afval).
• Informatie om de waterkracht te normaliseren in geval van pumped storage (niet relevant voor ons).

This is somewhat worrying, as I think it means that regular IEA statistics should not allow you to recreate the correct renewability percentage on the dashboard. For this you need additional information (which national statistics agencies do not supply to IEA. They do to Eurostat). I hadn't fully realized this, I suppose.

[ChaelKruip]

it means that regular IEA statistics should not allow you to recreate the correct renewability percentage on the dashboard

Ouch. Does this mean that we should go looking for Eurostat data?

[AlexanderWirtz]

@jorisberkhout please weigh in. How did we arrive at validated renewability percentage for countries other than nl? I assume this was mostly based on renewable supply and a little bit of data on market/technology shares for heat pumps and the like, right?

In your opinion, do we need to look for the Eurostat data that CBS claims it provides, or not? I suppose this question is best answered by looking at what data we use directly from CBS concerning renewability and to what extent it influences the renewability calculation. If needs be we can ask Otto some more questions.

@ChaelKruip What I am most confused about at this stage is how we arrive at the 'gross final demand' in the denominator for the renewability percentage calculation. That may also be a way into finding out what 'additional data' are needed to calculate this.

[ChaelKruip]

What I am most confused about at this stage is how we arrive at the 'gross final demand' in the denominator for the renewability percentage calculation.

We simply add all ambient_heat 'by hand' and add it to the nominator and denominator of the renewability query.

So, to find the 'gross final demand' we need ambient_heat from heat pumps and geothermal installations. I am not sure what the rules are with respect to ambient_cold though.

[jorisberkhout]

A while ago, I made the following comparison between the renewability percentage as calculated by the ETM and the renewability percentage as reported by eurostat in table t2020_31. I draw the (very rough) conclusion that our results are pretty ok, without worrying much about the definitions.

country	year	ETM	eurostat
de	2012	13.2%	12.4%
eu**	2011	12.2%	12.9%
fr	2012	12.2%	13.4%
nl	2011	4.2%	4.3%
pl	2012	10.2%	11.0%
es	2012	14.4%	14.3%
uk	2012	4.2%	4.2%

\ eurostat reports EU-28, while the ETM reports EU-27

[pietervanbreevoort]

Gross final energy demand includes: net-losses and own use in power and heat plants. This could partly explain the slightly higher shares found by Joris.

[jorisberkhout]

Removing milestone.

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[ChaelKruip]

Assigning @mabijkerk @michieldenhaan to have a look at this when there is a lull in billable work

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[mabijkerk]

This question also is relevant for geothermal final demand. We now don't include geothermal demand in agriculture as final demand, but we do show it in the final demand chart (shown below for II3050 Regional governance). It may be good to critically review the role of these products in the entire model, especially since Eurostat does include both products on their energy balance.

[mabijkerk]

The inconsistency within the model also extends to the "Renewability of final demand" chart. In this chart both geothermal and ambient heat are taken into account, while in the final demand chart only geothermal is shown, and in the primary demand chart neither are shown...

The renewability shown in this chart is also what is shown in the dashboard item. It can be confusing for users if they want to try and calculate the dashboard item themselves, only to find out that it is not based on the final demand chart.

I propose to put some priority on this issue. Shall I organize a short discussion about this sometime soon with @ChaelKruip or @AlexanderWirtz or both?

Copied open issue for this chart from #4021: (issue 1) This still leaves the main question: should ambient heat, ambient cold and geothermal be included in the renewability queries - which means that we implicitly count them as final demand.

(issue 2) If so, then a query ambient_cold_pumped_by_heat_pumps should be added to the renewability queries, since they currently only include geothermal and ambient heat. For fossil hydrogen this might look like this:

- query =
    100 * SUM(
        V(INTERSECTION(G(final_demand_group),USE(energetic)), "(1.0 - sustainability_share) * supply_of_hydrogen")
    ) / 
    SUM(
        V(INTERSECTION(G(final_demand_group),USE(energetic)), demand),
        Q(ambient_heat_pumped_by_heat_pumps),
        Q(ambient_cold_pumped_by_heat_pumps), # new query
        Q(geothermal_own_use_in_sectors)
    )

[mabijkerk]

Finally, the ambient heat demand in the chemical industry sector is included in the final demand of the sector. This is because the ambient heat edges are part of the EG(final_demand). The effect is that, for a blank nl2019 scenario, switching to 100% heating by heat pumps in the Chemicals sector, the energetic final demand of the industry actually increases:

Q(final_demand_from_industry_energetic)

"Blank scenario:" 779.9171433860057
"100% heat pump in Chemicals:" 815.8261645759638

Compare that to switching to 100% heating by water heat pumps in the Agriculture sector, the energetic final demand of agriculture decrease significantly:

Q(final_demand_from_agriculture_energetic)

"Blank scenario:" 144.77878490256893
"100% water heat pump in Agriculture:" 64.60084461409214

This means that we do not consistently allocate ambient heat to final demand in the ETM either.