Reduce CCS 2030 upper bound to only include 40% of announced projects as default. Changeable with switch.

amerfort commented 1 month ago

Purpose of this PR

We want to realistically constrain near-term CCS deployment in line with IEA-data on projects that are operational or under construction as well as announced projects. From all announced projects we now assume by default that only 40% will be realised by 2030 (previously the upper limit on CCS was 100% of all announced projects). This assumption can be altered with the new switch ~~c_SharenonFIDCCS2030~~ c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030

Furthermore, the very stringent CCS limit for DEU in 2030 was removed, as it is no longer needed. The reason is that CCS is now prominently discussed in German politics and the law that previously forbid it will be changed.

Edits:

[x] I renamed the switch such that it is correct (FID was not a criterion before, just realized vs. announced projects) and such that it can be understood intuitively.
[x] As suggested in the review, I added a conversion factor s_MtCO2_2_GtC

Type of change

[x] Minor change (default scenarios show only small differences)

Checklist:

[x] My code follows the coding etiquette
[x] I performed a self-review of my own code
[x] I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
[x] I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
[x] All automated model tests pass (FAIL 0 in the output of make test)

Further information (optional):

Test runs are here:
Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?): /p/projects/ecemf/REMIND/2040_scenarios/_sharedRuns/v06_2024_05_14_rev1_x_CCStest_Anne/compScen-ccs_near-term-2024-05-24_10.13.14-EU27-short.pdf

robertpietzcker commented 2 weeks ago

could you copy in as a comment 2-4 plots with the main changes in the results (from a compscen with old/new version)- CCS deployment over time for EU and other world regions (in case the changes also affected other world regions, I am not totally sure about this from the description), ... sure, the compScen has it all, but having to download it first makes it much less likely that people briefly checking what this change did will actually see the plots :-)

amerfort commented 2 weeks ago

Very good point, Robert! Thanks a lot! Here is an EU-27 plot with scenarios with the largest CCS deployment from Renatos EU2040 target analysis: red is the old version and green is with reduced 2025-2030 capacities. You can also see that Germany's very strict CCS cap was lifted and the new version now deploys some CCS (as a proxy for a shared EU-wide CCS infrastructure) and here is the H12 representation of the same runs:

remindmodel / remind