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ryankemper / writings

This repo will contain various writings (articles, free-form, etc) as I iterate on them. When stuff is ready it will be published somewhere "official" (medium, personal blog, etc - haven't decided specifics yet)
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Integrate ferguson to characterize containment #20

Closed ryankemper closed 4 years ago

ryankemper commented 4 years ago

With this, we think we've now done a much better job of provided a balanced characterization of the two possible paths we can take as a society.

While we personally don't think we're likely to see 2.2 million total COVID-19 deaths from lifting lockdown, it certainly is within the realm of possibility and thus we use it to establish an upper bound.

Similarly, we seek an upper bound for containment-associated mortality, but are unable to define one, because the strategy rests on future developments of treatment that are uncertain. We personally think that it's extremely likely that we'll eventually have a vaccine. But basing a policy on a temporally-unbounded event carries with it inherent risk, and our analysis reflects that.

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Additionally, while the title of the article ("The Case For Ending Lockdown") betrays our ultimate conclusion, we leave the ultimate conclusion to the reader. It is ultimately private citizens that must decide which path they want to take and therefore what political action they should take to effect such change.

ryankemper commented 4 years ago

This implicitly should resolve https://github.com/ryankemper/writings/issues/7

ryankemper commented 4 years ago

Going to merge now but I'd love retroactive review