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ryankemper / writings

This repo will contain various writings (articles, free-form, etc) as I iterate on them. When stuff is ready it will be published somewhere "official" (medium, personal blog, etc - haven't decided specifics yet)
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quantify "sizable portion" #5

Closed 0atman closed 4 years ago

0atman commented 4 years ago

A sizeable portion of those infected are either asymptomatic (no symptoms), or paucisymptomatic (few symptoms)

This is a very important fact that must be stated for the mitigation suggestions put forward in the article to have enough context for the reader to understand.

If 1% of people are asymptomatic, say, then that makes self-isolation when you know you're sick possible, but if it's 10% or higher, it's a very different story. If it's a high percentage, that adds much more weight to a blanket shelter-in-place policy.

Can you find a couple of sources to get the estimated percentage?

https://github.com/ryankemper/writings/blame/master/The_Case_For_Ending_Lockdown.md#L21

0atman commented 4 years ago

Oh wait, later on you link to the Vo paper (nice find, by the way, I'd not read that), which states:

Notably, 43.2% (95% CI 32.2-54.7%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic.

That's crazy high, why aren't we being told that!?

ryankemper commented 4 years ago

Will do. Thanks for all the feedback.

FWIW i think the % asymp. is very high. That’s why the proposal is not to practice containment. Aggressive testing of those around at-risk individuals, everyone else lives more or less as normal besides masks/distance and basically gets gradually infected by the pool of asymptomatics.

BTW I will not make this part of the writeup since it’s so speculative but logically the greater portion of transmission is from asymp., the greater the selection pressure towards less virulent strains IF virulence is correlated with symptoms.

I’ll be back near a “real” computer later tn and try to impl. some of the feedback

On Thu, Apr 30, 2020 at 20:31 Tristram Oaten notifications@github.com wrote:

A sizeable portion of those infected are either asymptomatic (no symptoms), or paucisymptomatic (few symptoms)

This is a very important fact that must be stated for the mitigation suggestions put forward in the article to have enough context for the reader to understand.

If 1% of people are asymptomatic, say, then that makes self-isolation when you know you're sick possible, but if it's 10% or higher, it's a very different story. If it's a high percentage, that adds much more weight to a blanket shelter-in-place policy.

Can you find a couple of sources to get the estimated percentage?

https://github.com/ryankemper/writings/blame/master/The_Case_For_Ending_Lockdown.md#L21

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0atman commented 4 years ago

I hope you don't mind me proofreading and hitting you with all these issues - I'll try to break them into bitesized chunks!

I note that while everyone on HN was quick to comment, not one of them hit you with a PR or anything to help - which is dumb.

Expect more from me!

ryankemper commented 4 years ago

I love to see it. Thanks so much @0atman.

0atman commented 4 years ago

No problem man, thanks for taking suggestions so well! :ok_hand: