Closed 0atman closed 4 years ago
Oh wait, later on you link to the Vo paper (nice find, by the way, I'd not read that), which states:
Notably, 43.2% (95% CI 32.2-54.7%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic.
That's crazy high, why aren't we being told that!?
Will do. Thanks for all the feedback.
FWIW i think the % asymp. is very high. That’s why the proposal is not to practice containment. Aggressive testing of those around at-risk individuals, everyone else lives more or less as normal besides masks/distance and basically gets gradually infected by the pool of asymptomatics.
BTW I will not make this part of the writeup since it’s so speculative but logically the greater portion of transmission is from asymp., the greater the selection pressure towards less virulent strains IF virulence is correlated with symptoms.
I’ll be back near a “real” computer later tn and try to impl. some of the feedback
On Thu, Apr 30, 2020 at 20:31 Tristram Oaten notifications@github.com wrote:
A sizeable portion of those infected are either asymptomatic (no symptoms), or paucisymptomatic (few symptoms)
This is a very important fact that must be stated for the mitigation suggestions put forward in the article to have enough context for the reader to understand.
If 1% of people are asymptomatic, say, then that makes self-isolation when you know you're sick possible, but if it's 10% or higher, it's a very different story. If it's a high percentage, that adds much more weight to a blanket shelter-in-place policy.
Can you find a couple of sources to get the estimated percentage?
https://github.com/ryankemper/writings/blame/master/The_Case_For_Ending_Lockdown.md#L21
— You are receiving this because you are subscribed to this thread. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub https://github.com/ryankemper/writings/issues/5, or unsubscribe https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AC7DOU2VADEFJX5USWRX6MTRPI7AZANCNFSM4MW2PKIA .
I hope you don't mind me proofreading and hitting you with all these issues - I'll try to break them into bitesized chunks!
I note that while everyone on HN was quick to comment, not one of them hit you with a PR or anything to help - which is dumb.
Expect more from me!
I love to see it. Thanks so much @0atman.
No problem man, thanks for taking suggestions so well! :ok_hand:
This is a very important fact that must be stated for the mitigation suggestions put forward in the article to have enough context for the reader to understand.
If 1% of people are asymptomatic, say, then that makes self-isolation when you know you're sick possible, but if it's 10% or higher, it's a very different story. If it's a high percentage, that adds much more weight to a blanket shelter-in-place policy.
Can you find a couple of sources to get the estimated percentage?
https://github.com/ryankemper/writings/blame/master/The_Case_For_Ending_Lockdown.md#L21