not sure if I understand that correctly, but there are many instances where 2nd&short has higher EP than following 1st&10 -> that results in a negative EPA for successful 2nd down plays.
example KC vs NE game ID 2017090700
drive no 4
chiefs play at Q1 8:48 2nd & 1 from own 19, EP 0.80 -> 4 yard gain, new 1st down, results in:
1st & 10 from own 23, EP 0.74 -> so a positive play has negative EP
there are many instances of that.
could you check that?
not sure if I understand that correctly, but there are many instances where 2nd&short has higher EP than following 1st&10 -> that results in a negative EPA for successful 2nd down plays. example KC vs NE game ID 2017090700 drive no 4 chiefs play at Q1 8:48 2nd & 1 from own 19, EP 0.80 -> 4 yard gain, new 1st down, results in: 1st & 10 from own 23, EP 0.74 -> so a positive play has negative EP
there are many instances of that. could you check that?