Weather forecasts are available from the NOAA CFSv2 model. A new run is released every 6 hours and forecasts 9 months out, with slight variations on output depending on the time of day.
These are deterministic forecasts, so to create an ensemble I'd need to use several days worth and combine them.
Downscaling requirements
This will involve taking the CFSv2 reanalysis and combining it with PRISM to get comparisons.
Potential steps
On each forecast day (ie. 1st and 15th of the month)
Download latest 10 (?) model runs.
Also download latest operations re-analysis.
(could also use the op. analysis that NPN uses)
Extract North America.
Downscale each one.
combine time series of the obs. temp from some cutoff thru the spring/summer
End up with:
An nc file of 10 runs of cuttoff - end of forecast
Weather forecasts are available from the NOAA CFSv2 model. A new run is released every 6 hours and forecasts 9 months out, with slight variations on output depending on the time of day.
These are deterministic forecasts, so to create an ensemble I'd need to use several days worth and combine them.
Downscaling requirements
This will involve taking the CFSv2 reanalysis and combining it with PRISM to get comparisons.
Potential steps
On each forecast day (ie. 1st and 15th of the month)
End up with: An nc file of 10 runs of cuttoff - end of forecast