shabbychef / ohenery

Modeling of Ordinal Random Variables via Softmax
GNU Lesser General Public License v3.0
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Possibility to fit a parametric form to the gamma's in Henery model #3

Open BenoitLondon opened 11 months ago

BenoitLondon commented 11 months ago

For example, gamma's seem to decrease with the position, and I've read they could depend on the number of runners as well in an article form John Bacon-Shone (I can't find the reference) cf: LO(i, j|k) = λ(k,n) log(pi/pj), with λ(k,n) ≈ μ^k in Bacon-Shone article where lambda is gamma in your formulation of Henery's model

Not sure how doable it is as it can't be too complex I guess?

but the dependence on number of runners makes sense to me

Thank you for that cool package! I might open more issues... :)

shabbychef commented 11 months ago

Thanks for opening the issue. I do not think this would be too hard to implement. I have two requests, however:

  1. find me a reference to the article.
  2. suggest a name for the code. (I am impartial to bashsm for "BAcon-SHone Soft Max".)
BenoitLondon commented 11 months ago

I saw this is in this chapter

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0386

image

but the references are: Lo, VSY; Bacon-Shone, J; Busche, K. (1992). A modified racetrack betting system. 18, 1–14. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/60980

Lo, V. S. Y., Bacon-Shone, J., & Busche, K. (1995). The Application of Ranking Probability Models to Racetrack Betting. Management Science, 41(6), 1048–1059. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.6.1048

For the implementation, I am not sure we need a new name, it's just an extension of your Henery model as I see it. maybe just an argument like gamma_method = c("discrete", "LBS") discrete being the current implementation and LBS the power shape, not sure about how to handle the number of runners though...

shabbychef commented 11 months ago

The Lo et al 1995 article talks about a "discount model", introduced in their 1992 paper. The discount model depends on some parameter r which would have to be fit. However I do not see the mu^k approximation there.

BenoitLondon commented 11 months ago

yeah me neither I could not find that exact formulation of mu^k in the references...