Open Norbo11 opened 1 year ago
@Norbo11 We wrote one for openskill. When I originally wrote it I tested it with trueskill and it works at predicting n-player games fine.
Lines for predicting wins: https://github.com/OpenDebates/openskill.py/blob/fa0b3543f12a2d2cc6d222d27795b2e616187636/openskill/rate.py#L327-L361
Relevant Pull Request: https://github.com/OpenDebates/openskill.py/pull/48
Has anyone come up with an appropriate formula for calculating a win probability in a free-for-all match? I'm aware of the formula for a two-team matchup or a 1v1 matchup, but I haven't seen one for a free-for-all.
I've tried to devise my own formula by simply defining the win probability for a player as the average of all win probabilities in 1v1 matchups against all the other opponents. It seems to give reasonable results intuitively, but I'm not sure about the mathematical validity of this approach.
Would anyone more familiar with the mathematics be able to verify these results, or give some insight as to why it might be correct/incorrect? Many thanks.