Historic weather generation

[julieshortridge]

Goal: Develop 15-year sequence of historic weather conditions based on resampling of observed record @julieshortridge

[julieshortridge]

@sumanager56 I generated a historic meteorological time series (daily values from 2002 through October 2022) for the following variables: AWND: Average wind speed (m/s) PRCP: Precipitation (inches) TMAX, TMIN: Daily min and max temperature (deg F) RAD: Daily accumulated radiation, kJ/m^2 HUM: Average daily relative humidity (% of saturated).

I did this using observed daily temperature, rainfall, and wind speed from the Norfolk airport weather station. I rescaled the rainfall and wind speed values to account for the fact that Tidewater tends to be a bit less windy and get a little more rain than Norfolk. Because Norfolk doesn't record humidity and solar radiation values, these wereare randomly sampled around mean values at the Tidewater weatherstem station between 2019 and 2022.

Can you see if you can get SWAP running using this multi-year time series (us the CN version as a starting point). You'll need to specify planting and harvest dates, and likely some other parameters. For dates, you can just use the dates from the 2021 season for now. You'll also have to do some unit conversions as you did with the met data before.

Historic_Met_2002-2022.csv

[julieshortridge]

Updated time series with negative radiation values corrected. Historic_Met_2002-2022.csv

[sumanager56]

After running the model with 20 years of data, here's what the initial plot looks like. For now, I just used the R code that came along with the case study. The groundwater plot looks weird because there was no observed or simulated data for that. I could not understand why there were no significant values on yield and also nitrogen uptake (currently playing around with No3 and NH4 controlling parameters within). I specified the same planting and harvesting dates for 20 years. Besides, I am not still able to generate similar soil moisture and ET plots for 2021 using the new historic data (ran a simulation only for the year 2021). The ET is way too low for this model and the soil remains saturated almost forever.

[julieshortridge]

Climate change scenarios (from Nov meeting):

• Warming only: Higher temperature, same precipitation
• Warming + greater precipitation:
• Warming + lower precipitation
• Warming + more variable precipitation

[julieshortridge]

NOAA Climate Explorer: Temperature: 2010's projection: 71.4/71.5 2050's projection: 73.7/74.9 ; change of 2.3 to 3.4 deg F

Rainfall projections - check Daniel/CBP's 10th/90th percentile values.