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tamas-ferenci / COVID19MagyarEpi

A magyarországi koronavírus járvány valós idejű, kvantitatív epidemiológiája.
GNU General Public License v3.0
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Estimated value of R in the compartmental model #2

Closed bgyori closed 4 years ago

bgyori commented 4 years ago

The forecasts use a value of 2.69 for R by default, but the two methods for estimating R with a sliding window are in the ~1.4 range. Would it make sense to use these estimates of R as the default when displaying the forecast? Or am I missing something?

tamas-ferenci commented 4 years ago

Thanks @bgyori for your comment! You're totally right, the present value used in the long-term forecast (compartmental model) is a way larger than the actual value. But you can easily overcome this: if you set the mode to Szcenárióelemzés, you can arbitrarily change the value of R, which means you can set it to arbitrary value, and you're also completely free to choose the date of change. Thus, you can even set it to to very first day, set the deviation to -1.3, and there you have the ~1.4 scenario!