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thibautjombart / covid19_bed_occupancy

Shiny app providing estimates of future bed occupancy given recent admissions
https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/hospital_bed_occupancy_projections/
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Zero uncertainty #38

Closed mert0248 closed 4 years ago

mert0248 commented 4 years ago

Roz noted that sometimes the projection has zero uncertainty. image

thibautjombart commented 4 years ago

This shot is not very informative. I can reproduce something similar: image

This are tiny numbers and very early on. Also note that we allow for uncertainty in growth = 0, so the only remaining uncertainty comes from LoS. This kind of result is not surprising.