Using Thales and their already existing betting infrastructure from overnight markets we can increase the amount of options developers have and to earn from and give traditional non tech users access to web3 biggest sport. Development
Betting Formats
How much time will this bounty take?
In this format Developers can bet on how long an individual bounty will take, effectively turning the developer community into an oracle where the estimated time will be a weighed average
This will take into account 2 factors
1) Developer reputation or ELO, the more bounties done in time or less the Higher
2)Bettor ELO, the more bounties correctly guessed the bigger the ELO
This creates the following scenarios
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in a bit less time than than estimated
This probably means the hunter is good/has solved similar issues in the past allowing him to solve this quickly and the time estimate was correct
This leads to an ELO increase for the hunter and he gets the extra money from completing the bounty earlier as his incentive
The bettors who estimated improperly get rekt and the money gets distributed to the ones who did estimate correctly
The ELO of the Bettors gets affected accordingly
we can study the possibility of the house (us) getting a cut from the betting pool to cover our "losses" caused by paying extra to the hunter
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in More time than than estimated but not excessive (like a 1 week estimate took 1.5 weeks or something)
This Probably means despite the hunter being a good dev he didn't get there in time due to the time given was unrealistic
The ELO of the hunter remains the same (increasing elo would mean giving good hunters incentives to being late)
Bettors who estimated improperly get sligly rekt and the money gets distributed to the ones who did estimate correctly (the time the good dev took)
The ELO of the Bettors gets affected accordingly
The money that was destined for the "house" in the above case goes to the hunter to cover him getting underpaid (this can lead to disproportionate comp compared to what he would've gotten incentivizing good hunters to "hunt" unreasonable timelines
in this scenario if its obvious the hunter didn't perform as expected and tried to exploit this rule he gets treated like the case below
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in a lot More time than than estimated (1 week bounty took >2 weeks)
This Probably means despite the hunter being a good dev he got lazy
The ELO of the hunter drops a lot
Bettors who estimated closer to the grace period get the most money
The ELO of the Bettors gets affected accordingly with the monetary rewards
House gets a small cut
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in a lot less time than than estimated
This means the timeline was a bit generous or the hunter is just too good, doesnt seem fair to punish people too hard in this scenario
This leads to an bigger ELO increase for the hunter and he gets the extra money from completing the bounty earlier as his incentive
The bettors who estimated improperly get rekt and the money gets distributed to the ones who did estimate correctly but a small amount less than expected
The ELO of the Bettors gets affected accordingly
house takes a smaller/No cut that and more money is given to the hunter
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty in considerably less time than than estimated
This probably means the estimated time was so overkill a bad developer managed to beat it
This leads to an big ELO increase for the hunter and he gets the extra money from completing the bounty earlier as his incentive
The bettors who estimated improperly get rekt and the money gets and the ones who did estimate correctly smaller portion (bets ticks earlier can be given more money as that would be closer to the real time)
The ELO of the Bettors gets affected accordingly in a harsher way
House takes a bigger cut
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty by a bit less less time than than estimated
This probably means the estimated time was so overkill a bad developer managed to beat it
This leads to an ELO increase for the hunter and he gets the extra money from completing the bounty earlier as his incentive
The bettors who estimated improperly get rekt and the money gets and the ones who did estimate correctly smaller portion (bets a few ticks earlier can be given more money as that would be closer to the real time)
The ELO of the Bettors gets affected accordingly in a harsher way
House cut up by a small margin
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty in more time than than estimated but not way more
This probably means the estimate was accurate
ELO of the hunter drops
bettors get their money and ELO as expected
house gets a smaller cut
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty in way more time than than estimated
This probably means the estimate was a bit unrealistic because even someone "bad" didn't manage to get there in time
ELO of the hunter drops
bettors get their money and ELO as expected with rewards skewed at the longer end
house gets the normal cut
any ELO hunter completes the bounty in the expected Time
estimate was accurate
ELO of the hunter increases
Bettor get the expected amount of money/ELO
House takes its cut
General Reasoning/Potential issues/Random things
1) Implement the "tennis game logic" between bettors and hunters
2) Reward good hunters with perks like the essential "grace period" they get but also punishing them way harsher for doing a bad job to prevent resting on laurels
3) Having bad ELO can be dodge by just making another account so it will probably be a bad idea but its a starting point
4) we will need data to get the correct standard deviation to calculate things like "this one was off for like 2-3 days"
5) punish bettors for overpaying/giving too much time and incentivize reputable hunters to find rushed and unrealistic deadlines
6) House cuts mean extra revenue source to help make the devpool itself free of fees for partners
Gauntlet style bets (essentially a normal sports tournament parley
Another Popular type of bounty is the "free for all" where developers (or teams) compete for the best solution to a problem, in this scenario people can bet on who will win, this format has the advantage that normal people can participate as the track record of hunters can be used to bet on who will win
This format con be extended to a full style sports tournamet where we do either bracket style matches or publish a set of free for alls and people can bet on who will win in batches
example of additional formats available for eveyone
1) bet on who will be at the top of the leatherboard
2) bet on who will complete the most bounties
3) bet on who will have claimed the most amount of money
4) bet on who will the biggest perfect streak//less time than expected
GitHub Sports
Using Thales and their already existing betting infrastructure from overnight markets we can increase the amount of options developers have and to earn from and give traditional non tech users access to web3 biggest sport. Development
Betting Formats
How much time will this bounty take?
This will take into account 2 factors 1) Developer reputation or ELO, the more bounties done in time or less the Higher 2)Bettor ELO, the more bounties correctly guessed the bigger the ELO
This creates the following scenarios
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in a bit less time than than estimated
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in More time than than estimated but not excessive (like a 1 week estimate took 1.5 weeks or something)
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in a lot More time than than estimated (1 week bounty took >2 weeks)
Good ELO hunter does Bounty in a lot less time than than estimated
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty in considerably less time than than estimated
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty by a bit less less time than than estimated
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty in more time than than estimated but not way more
Bad ELO hunter does Bounty in way more time than than estimated
any ELO hunter completes the bounty in the expected Time
General Reasoning/Potential issues/Random things
1) Implement the "tennis game logic" between bettors and hunters 2) Reward good hunters with perks like the essential "grace period" they get but also punishing them way harsher for doing a bad job to prevent resting on laurels 3) Having bad ELO can be dodge by just making another account so it will probably be a bad idea but its a starting point 4) we will need data to get the correct standard deviation to calculate things like "this one was off for like 2-3 days" 5) punish bettors for overpaying/giving too much time and incentivize reputable hunters to find rushed and unrealistic deadlines 6) House cuts mean extra revenue source to help make the devpool itself free of fees for partners
Gauntlet style bets (essentially a normal sports tournament parley
Another Popular type of bounty is the "free for all" where developers (or teams) compete for the best solution to a problem, in this scenario people can bet on who will win, this format has the advantage that normal people can participate as the track record of hunters can be used to bet on who will win
This format con be extended to a full style sports tournamet where we do either bracket style matches or publish a set of free for alls and people can bet on who will win in batches
example of additional formats available for eveyone
1) bet on who will be at the top of the leatherboard 2) bet on who will complete the most bounties 3) bet on who will have claimed the most amount of money 4) bet on who will the biggest perfect streak//less time than expected